R1b-L51 in Yamnaya: Lazaridis 2024

[R.Rocca]

That’s great.I was never as much a fanboy of Yamnaya as many seem to be, but I did think it was quite likely L51 came from it. I started to think this more when you look at the FTDNA little uptick of branching around 3300-3000BC  in that lineage after a good  many centuries  since the previous little burst 4200-4000BC. It fits the archaeology of a quote period on the steppes between 4000BC or shortly after to 3300BC. The 2nd burst closely corresponds to the Yamnaya expansion. My guess is L51 started in the Don-Volga area in the pre Yamnaya 4th miloeniun and spread west through Ukraine 3300-3000BC (though outliers can happen).

I posted above about the first generations of Bohemian Corded Ware being heavy in both L151 and R1a, but I will also remind others that the entirety of Corded Ware samples from south-eastern Poland (Lindenholm 2020) were all P310 and R1a to the exclusion of Z2103. Geographically, you can just about follow the breadcrumbs from north-western Ukraine using a route north of the Carpathian Mountains and not the Danube. Whether this combined L51/R1a was a very early off-shoot of northernmost Yamnaya or a subset of Sredny Stog makes no difference to me. But, one thing is certain - this northern group formed its own cultural identity and differentiated itself from Yamnaya, much in the same way that later P312 Bell Beaker tribes differentiated themselves from Corded Ware. They also include a cultural and genetic identity that the Danube Yamnaya do not, and that is a heavy influence from Globular Amphora Culture.

[alanarchae]

I now officially proclaim myself a Yamnayan (then CW after 3000/2900BC). It’s taken a very long time to prove that chain of Sredny Stog-Yamnaya-CW-beaker corresponding to the M269-L23-L51-L151-P312 chain but it’s now basically complete. It’s been increasingly clear that is the truth for a few years but it’s nice to lnice to be alive to see it confirmed ? ??

[old europe]

that is their take about CWC ethnogenesis

A more western origin of the Core Yamnaya would also bring their latest ancestors in proximity to the place of origin of the Corded Ware complex whose origin is itself in question but must have certainly been in the area of central-eastern Europe occupied by the Globular Amphora culture west of the Core Yamnaya. The Corded Ware population, which could trace a large part of its ancestry to the Yamnaya, was formed by admixture concurrent with the Yamnaya expansion (Extended Data Fig. 2d), shared segments of IBD proving connections within a shallow genealogical timeframe, and had a balance of ancestral components from the Caucasus and eastern Europe indistinguishable from the Yamnaya. In combination, these lines of evidence suggests that it  was formed indeed by early 3rd millennium BCE admixture with Yamnaya, or, at the very least, genetically Yamnaya ancestors that need not have been Yamnaya in the archaeological sense. The geographical homelands of the Corded Ware and Yamnaya would then conceivably be in geographical proximity to allow for their synchronous emergence and shared ancestry. The Dnipro-Don area of the Serednii Stih culture fits the genetic data, as it explains the ancestry of the nascent Core Yamnaya and places them in precisely the area from which both Corded Ware, and Southeastern European Yamnaya (in the west) and the Don Yamnaya (in the east) could have emerged by admixture of the Core Yamnaya with European farmers and UNHG respectively.

So the r1a is from the dneper don WHG/EHG population
I2a which was very widespread in the PIE stage is from the same area and a full fledged WHG marker
apparently R1b from the Dneper Don Sredni stog

99% of all living IE speakers stem from all of this and they put the PIE homeland in the northern causasus
Does it make sense ?

[Desdonas]

Except the average 73-year gap of R1b and R1a in CW Bohemia, early CW R1as in central Europe are mainly M417xZ645. According to ftdna, Z645(PF6162) split from M417* at around 3,400BCE, which may be prior to the expansion of Yamnaya and the eastward migration of pre-Afanasievo.

https://discover.familytreedna.com/y-dna/R-M417/story
https://discover.familytreedna.com/y-dna/R-PF6162/story

It seems that post-Anatolian IE expanded rapidly around 3,400BCE, while in the early stage, there may be few linguistic innovations. In the forest steppe, L151 headed west first, and subsequent was the M417xZ645 wave. Both wave used a north-Carpathian route. Indo-Iranian Z93 may stay in Ukraine longer and finally be close to the MDC. After 3,000BC, various linguistic innovations arose on the border of late Yamnaya, PBS and Pre-II, leaving Italo-Celtic and Tocharian archaic.

The last issue is that, I feel Indo-Iranian lexicon and mythology contain really little elements which need to be derived from GAC. How did they escape from this substratum?

[RBHeadge]

I'm not going to go out on that big of a limb here but, I that it is highly unlikely we will ever find R-L151 along the Danube route. The biggest tip is the lack of R1a in any of these Yamnaya samples. Based on the Czech Corded Ware study, it is much more likely that both R-L151 and R1a traveled together from the forest steppe and then founder effects took over from there. It is noteworthy that none of the three radiocarbon tested Yamnaya R-L51 samples are older than the Czech R-L151 samples.

Sorry I do not get it. the R1b samples in Romania and Serbia are precisely on the danubian route.

I think he was talking about finding L151 on the Danube route, but I wonder what a look at the BAM files of these samples might reveal. Might they have been L151? Or maybe they were something else south of L51, like PF7589, or something else downstream of P310 other than L151, some sibling of L151?

I too am awaiting the analysis of the BAM files. There's lots to think about if these are all xL151.
We know I24099 is P310. Could it be FT123498 or FT186340, or something new and extinct?
I2823 has potential as PF7589. Could also be P310 or xP310,PF7589
I6884, I12893, I11838: I doubt they are PF7589. The farthest east we see PF7589 in scientific random sample studies or DTC testing is a small concentration in Arkhangelsk Oblast. If they are PF7589, they're a new and extinct branch. A new and/or extinct P310xL151 branch seems more likely. Of course a new and extinct L51xP310,PF7589 is possible and would be mildly exciting on its own.

[rmstevens2]

I now officially proclaim myself a Yamnayan (then CW after 3000/2900BC). It’s taken a very long time to prove that chain of Sredny Stog-Yamnaya-CW-beaker corresponding to the M269-L23-L51-L151-P312 chain but it’s now basically complete. It’s been increasingly clear that is the truth for a few years but it’s nice  to lnice to be alive to see it confirmed ? ??

Yes, it does seem to be confirmed. That, I think, is the ultimate significance of this new preprint, at least it is for me. Regardless of the fact that these five (or maybe more) L51 Yamnayans are slightly later than Papac's L151 Bohemian CW guys, all of the evidence, taken together with the two Afanasievo P310s we already know about, demonstrates loudly and clearly that L51, and M269 itself, originated on the steppe east of peninsular Europe. 

The big fights over "R1b" that began years ago, and that have persisted in some cobwebbed corners until just two days ago, are over. 

The downside of that is that things may get kind of boring now.

[alanarchae]

That’s great.I was never as much a fanboy of Yamnaya as many seem to be, but I did think it was quite likely L51 came from it. I started to think this more when you look at the FTDNA little uptick of branching around 3300-3000BC  in that lineage after a good  many centuries  since the previous little burst 4200-4000BC. It fits the archaeology of a quote period on the steppes between 4000BC or shortly after to 3300BC. The 2nd burst closely corresponds to the Yamnaya expansion. My guess is L51 started in the Don-Volga area in the pre Yamnaya 4th miloeniun and spread west through Ukraine 3300-3000BC (though outliers can happen).

I posted above about the first generations of Bohemian Corded Ware being heavy in both L151 and R1a, but I will also remind others that the entirety of Corded Ware samples from south-eastern Poland (Lindenholm 2020) were all P310 and R1a to the exclusion of Z2103. Geographically, you can just about follow the breadcrumbs from north-western Ukraine using a route north of the Carpathian Mountains and not the Danube. Whether this combined L51/R1a was a very early off-shoot of northernmost Yamnaya or a subset of Sredny Stog makes no difference to me. But, one thing is certain - this northern group formed its own cultural identity and differentiated itself from Yamnaya, much in the same way that later P312 Bell Beaker tribes differentiated themselves from Corded Ware. They also include a cultural and genetic identity that the Danube Yamnaya do not, and that is a heavy influence from Globular Amphora Culture.

100% agree.

[Mitchell-Atkins]

I now officially proclaim myself a Yamnayan (then CW after 3000/2900BC). It’s taken a very long time to prove that chain of Sredny Stog-Yamnaya-CW-beaker corresponding to the M269-L23-L51-L151-P312 chain but it’s now basically complete. It’s been increasingly clear that is the truth for a few years but it’s nice  to lnice to be alive to see it confirmed ? ??

A more western origin of the Core Yamnaya would also bring their latest ancestors in proximity to the place of origin of the Corded Ware complex whose origin is itself in question but must have certainly been in the area of central-eastern Europe occupied by the Globular Amphora culture west of the Core Yamnaya. The Corded Ware population, which could trace a large part of its ancestry to the Yamnaya, was formed by admixture concurrent with the Yamnaya expansion (Extended Data Fig. 2d), shared segments of IBD proving connections within a shallow genealogical timeframe, and had a balance of ancestral components from the Caucasus and eastern Europe indistinguishable from the Yamnaya. In combination, these lines of evidence suggests that it  was formed indeed by early 3rd millennium BCE admixture with Yamnaya, or, at the very least, genetically Yamnaya ancestors that need not have been Yamnaya in the archaeological sense. The geographical homelands of the Corded Ware and Yamnaya would then conceivably be in geographical proximity to allow for their synchronous emergence and shared ancestry. The Dnipro-Don area of the Serednii Stih culture fits the genetic data, as it explains the ancestry of the nascent Core Yamnaya and places them in precisely the area from which both Corded Ware, and Southeastern European Yamnaya (in the west) and the Don Yamnaya (in the east) could have emerged by admixture of the Core Yamnaya with European farmers and UNHG respectively.

I'm trying to understand this.  Is CW descending from Yamnaya, or are CW and Yamnaya both descending from the recent genetic ancestors of Yamnaya that aren't necessarily part of what is defined as Yamnaya archaeologically?

Based on the above underlined, I was inclined to think CW doesn't descend from Yamnaya, but rather, they both share recent ancestry...the father of Yamnya and CW if you will.

[JonikW]

I now officially proclaim myself a Yamnayan (then CW after 3000/2900BC). It’s taken a very long time to prove that chain of Sredny Stog-Yamnaya-CW-beaker corresponding to the M269-L23-L51-L151-P312 chain but it’s now basically complete. It’s been increasingly clear that is the truth for a few years but it’s nice  to lnice to be alive to see it confirmed ? ??

Yes, it does seem to be confirmed. That, I think, is the ultimate significance of this new preprint, at least it is for me. Regardless of the fact that these five (or maybe more) L51 Yamnayans are slightly later than Papac's L151 Bohemian CW guys, all of the evidence, taken together with the two Afanasievo P310s we already know about, demonstrates loudly and clearly that L51, and M269 itself, originated on the steppe east of peninsular Europe. 

The big fights over "R1b" that began years ago, and that have persisted in some cobwebbed corners until just two days ago, are over. 

The downside of that is that things may get kind of boring now.

Reminds me of McColl et al with I-M253. I wasn't too optimistic on the aDNA front at the beginning of 2024 but this seems to be the best year we've ever had for resolving issues around the origin and spread of the big European Y haplogroups. It's truly a joy and a privilege to be the first witnesses to all this.

[alanarchae]

that is their take about CWC ethnogenesis

A more western origin of the Core Yamnaya would also bring their latest ancestors in proximity to the place of origin of the Corded Ware complex whose origin is itself in question but must have certainly been in the area of central-eastern Europe occupied by the Globular Amphora culture west of the Core Yamnaya. The Corded Ware population, which could trace a large part of its ancestry to the Yamnaya, was formed by admixture concurrent with the Yamnaya expansion (Extended Data Fig. 2d), shared segments of IBD proving connections within a shallow genealogical timeframe, and had a balance of ancestral components from the Caucasus and eastern Europe indistinguishable from the Yamnaya. In combination, these lines of evidence suggests that it  was formed indeed by early 3rd millennium BCE admixture with Yamnaya, or, at the very least, genetically Yamnaya ancestors that need not have been Yamnaya in the archaeological sense. The geographical homelands of the Corded Ware and Yamnaya would then conceivably be in geographical proximity to allow for their synchronous emergence and shared ancestry. The Dnipro-Don area of the Serednii Stih culture fits the genetic data, as it explains the ancestry of the nascent Core Yamnaya and places them in precisely the area from which both Corded Ware, and Southeastern European Yamnaya (in the west) and the Don Yamnaya (in the east) could have emerged by admixture of the Core Yamnaya with European farmers and UNHG respectively.

So the r1a is from the dneper don WHG/EHG population
I2a which was very widespread in the PIE stage is from the same area and a full fledged WHG marker
apparently R1b from the Dneper Don Sredni stog

99% of all living IE speakers stem from all of this and they put the PIE homeland in the northern causasus
Does it make sense ?

i’ve never been a huge ‘it must be Yamnaya rather than a sibling culture’ kind of guy but when you look at the dates of branching under L51 down to L151 and you consider the languages associated with them and siblings later, it is pretty likely that L51 around 3300BC was speaking full proto IE and not a sibling branch due to shared deeper Stedny Stog roots around 4000BC (which would mean something mote like Anatolian as the MRCA language -which seems totally wrong). The branching off from L51 seen from 3000-2900BC appears to lead largely to CW and populations who ultimately spoke Italo-Celtic, NW Block and Germanic. 

Usually Italo-Celtic and Germanic are seen to ultimately derive from the earliest post-Tocharian branching off from the tree. As Tocharian likely broke off about 3300BC with Afanasievo and CW formed and moved markedly west and away from the core soon after 3000BC, that kind of fits the tree. So, imo it does fit best if L51 was in Yamnaya core c.3300-3000BC and the concept of a sibling lineage with a sredny stog as the last common ancestor doesn’t fit the linguistic branching nearly as well. 

I agree with RR that L151 did not take the Danube route and the yamnaya L51 samples in that area are likely some L51x L151 lines (which have indeed been theoried to have used the Danube Route. L151 must have been a core lineage in the Yamnaya elements who morphed into the earliest CW (just prior to the heavy GAC mixing). I think this suggests L151 anc its immediate ancestor was in the forest steppe of Ukraine by 3000BC and CW developed out of the ive ts  forest steppe groups on the frontier. GAC groups were heading south/southeast around 3000-2900BC using the rivers between the east Carpathians and Dnieper. It’s hard to imagine that the CW pioneers who appear in Poland around or just after 3000BC could have used any other route than one or more of the same rivers but using them in the opposite direction at a similar time. Though RC dating isn’t accurate enough to be absolutely sure of exact timing and though it’s have been impossible for them not to bump into each other somewhere between Ukraine and Poland c.3000-2900BC and that aligns with the DNA.

[R.Rocca]

While possible plague resistance gets talked a lot when discussing factors contributing to Yamnaya's dominance, one thing that does not is body height and physique. This pre-Yamnaya and Yamnaya in SE Europe graphic is from a conference next week in Hungary which will be attended and led by Reich, Anthony, Volker and others. Pretty obvious that all things being equal, the Yamnaya men would have had a major advantage when raiding.

[targaryen]

While possible plague resistance gets talked a lot when discussing factors contributing to Yamnaya's dominance, one thing that does not is body height and physique. This pre-Yamnaya and Yamnaya in SE Europe graphic is from a conference next week in Hungary which will be attended and led by Reich, Anthony, Volker and others. Pretty obvious that all things being equal, the Yamnaya men would have had a major advantage when raiding.

In hand to hand combat, sure, but farmer populations vastly outnumbered pastoralist populations.

[old europe]

While possible plague resistance gets talked a lot when discussing factors contributing to Yamnaya's dominance, one thing that does not is body height and physique. This pre-Yamnaya and Yamnaya in SE Europe graphic is from a conference next week in Hungary which will be attended and led by Reich, Anthony, Volker and others. Pretty obvious that all things being equal, the Yamnaya men would have had a major advantage when raiding.

yes that is precisely a legacy of their forefathers the dneper donets folks.

Physical type
The physical remains recovered from graves of the Dnieper–Donets culture have been classified as "Proto-Europoid".[9][a] They are predominantly characterized as late Cro-Magnons[24] with large and more massive features than the gracile Mediterranean peoples of the Balkan Neolithic.[6][25] Males averaged 172 cm in height, which is much taller than contemporary Neolithic populations.[6] Its rugged physical traits are thought to have genetically influenced later Indo-European peoples.[9][25]
Physical anthropologists have pointed out similarities in the physical type of the Dnieper-Donets people with the Mesolithic peoples of Northern Europe.[9]
The peoples of the neighboring Sredny Stog culture, which eventually succeeded the Dnieper–Donets culture, were of a more gracile appearance.[26]

[parasar]

The  earliest RC dates for Afanasiebo culture you see in David Anthony’s well known book have been overturned and it’s been redated back to c.3300BC, same as Yamnaya. TBH I think Afanasievo is just a Yamnaya group and i’d be inclined to add the L51’s from that culture to the Yamnaya list.

I think this paper is saying Yamnaya is ~4000BCE:
"First, the Yamnaya were formed by admixture ~4000 BCE and began their expansion during the middle of the 4th millennium BCE, corresponding to this linguistic split date between IE and Anatolian. Second, the Yamnaya were the source of the Afanasievo migration to the east"

[R.Rocca]

While possible plague resistance gets talked a lot when discussing factors contributing to Yamnaya's dominance, one thing that does not is body height and physique. This pre-Yamnaya and Yamnaya in SE Europe graphic is from a conference next week in Hungary which will be attended and led by Reich, Anthony, Volker and others. Pretty obvious that all things being equal, the Yamnaya men would have had a major advantage when raiding.

In hand to hand combat, sure, but farmer populations vastly outnumbered pastoralist populations.

No necessarily. The Ccucuteni-Trypillian mega settlements were burned to the ground several times and farmer populations were likely already on the decline when the steppe men started migrating west.