Stolarek et al: Genetic history of East-Central Europe...

[Riverman]

It seems to me that we are starting from an assumption this way, and only data that fits said assumption would be accepted, whereas, all else would be disregarded as singletons, and outliers.

I know, it is like the paper was written by some guys on this site rather than actual scientists.  For instance, I think most subclades of L1029 should be assigned to an area, rather than specific cultures (save for YP417 and YP263, which are clearly pan-Slavic), and if a culture had those subclades at its forming, it means said culture was formed in that area, which for the majority of L1029 (once again, leaving out YP417 and YP263, which have far greater areas of diffusion than the others) would be the Poland-Oder/Elbe interfluve area.

Regarding YP263, while more diffused, it is still primarily within the triad of what is now Germany, Poland and Czechia. I think most outliers to the north can be attributed to the Polabians.
https://discover.familytreedna.com/y-dna...view=table
https://discover.familytreedna.com/y-dna/R-YP263/tree

Most branches being pulled especially West and a bit North, usually, too. That's because of the better tested Birtish Isles in particular. It is very noticeable for E-V13, but even more mildly so, it appears with most other haplogroups which have any sort of presence in the Isles as well. Russia, Ukraine, Romania, Moldova etc. are all fairly undertested by comparison, which causes these skewed predictions. You can basically, most of the time, keep much of the North - South positioning, but have to pull East.

[Vinitharya]

Yeah but how much L1029 is in the British Isles?  I don't doubt it's the case with E-V13 or G2a or U152, clades that came with the Romans and the La Tène Celts, but one lonely Polabian Viking isn't going to change much.  YP619 is itself pulled to the east, due to the Volga German samples listing Saratov, Russia, as their origin.  Well, there is that Volga Tatar with YP619, but there is even more western haplogroups in the Tatars, with examples of U152 and U106 found, the latter most likely from the Goths.

[leonardo]

Yeah but how much L1029 is in the British Isles?  I don't doubt it's the case with E-V13 or G2a or U152, clades that came with the Romans and the La Tène Celts, but one lonely Polabian Viking isn't going to change much.  YP619 is itself pulled to the east, due to the Volga German samples listing Saratov, Russia, as their origin.  Well, there is that Volga Tatar with YP619, but there is even more western haplogroups in the Tatars, with examples of U152 and U106 found, the latter most likely from the Goths.

For YP263 there are 4 samples from Ireland. That's it. None for the U.K. There's 159 tested descendants. Some are unknown. Even just calculating the known, 4/117= .0342 or 3%. Also, there actually is 1 from Belarus, 1 from Lithuania, 2 from Ukraine and 7 from Russia. So, Belarus, Lithuania and Ukraine constitute the same count of 4 as the western isles.
https://discover.familytreedna.com/y-dna.../frequency

[Riverman]

Yeah but how much L1029 is in the British Isles?  I don't doubt it's the case with E-V13 or G2a or U152, clades that came with the Romans and the La Tène Celts, but one lonely Polabian Viking isn't going to change much.  YP619 is itself pulled to the east, due to the Volga German samples listing Saratov, Russia, as their origin.  Well, there is that Volga Tatar with YP619, but there is even more western haplogroups in the Tatars, with examples of U152 and U106 found, the latter most likely from the Goths.

You are right, for that haplogroup the British Isles are not that much of an issue, but there are a couple of other better tested countries, like the Scandinavian ones. Sweden has a relatively high number of testers from this branch. Sweden, Finland and Denmark are in the top 14. Correcting my earlier statement, this should cause just a bit of North West rather than a West pull, relative to the original positioning.
Obviously not as strong as for some other haplogroups and branches, you are right.

[okshtunas]

I know, it is like the paper was written by some guys on this site rather than actual scientists.  For instance, I think most subclades of L1029 should be assigned to an area, rather than specific cultures (save for YP417 and YP263, which are clearly pan-Slavic), and if a culture had those subclades at its forming, it means said culture was formed in that area, which for the majority of L1029 (once again, leaving out YP417 and YP263, which have far greater areas of diffusion than the others) would be the Poland-Oder/Elbe interfluve area.

Regarding YP263, while more diffused, it is still primarily within the triad of what is now Germany, Poland and Czechia. I think most outliers to the north can be attributed to the Polabians.
https://discover.familytreedna.com/y-dna...view=table
https://discover.familytreedna.com/y-dna/R-YP263/tree

Most branches being pulled especially West and a bit North, usually, too. That's because of the better tested Birtish Isles in particular. It is very noticeable for E-V13, but even more mildly so, it appears with most other haplogroups which have any sort of presence in the Isles as well. Russia, Ukraine, Romania, Moldova etc. are all fairly undertested by comparison, which causes these skewed predictions. You can basically, most of the time, keep much of the North - South positioning, but have to pull East.

Lol I highly doubt a few samples in downstream clades of L1029 is shifting the entire branch "so far west". Big stretch on your part there. Pretty obvious most of L1029 and it's basal participants are mostly between Germany and Poland (hence it's western position).

If we get a boat load of basal L1029 in Belarus and Ukraine, you can make your argument.

Doubtful it's likely to shift. You would need an equal if not greather number of basal popping up.

[Riverman]

Lol I highly doubt a few samples in downstream clades of L1029 is shifting the entire branch "so far west". Big stretch on your part there. Pretty obvious most of L1029 and it's basal participants are mostly between Germany and Poland (hence it's western position).

If we get a boat load of basal L1029 in Belarus and Ukraine, you can make your argument.

Doubtful it's likely to shift. You would need an equal if not greather number of basal popping up.

I was wrong about the British Isles, admitted, but Fennoscandia is much better tested still than say Belorussia, Russia and Ukraine. Sweden has more testers than Russia at FTDNA, yet Russia has 3-4 times the numbers already. Imagine if a country like Russia would have been as well-tested. It is absolutely evident that the whole thing would shift East still, even if my initial comment centered around British Isles testers was false.

Sweden, Finland and Denmark have combined more testers than Russia, Belorussia and Ukraine together - despite the obvious differences population size. And I think nobody here denies that the latter are far more important with far more branch members.
So just based on modern testers, the whole thing would still shift East with more testing density.

[okshtunas]

Lol I highly doubt a few samples in downstream clades of L1029 is shifting the entire branch "so far west". Big stretch on your part there. Pretty obvious most of L1029 and it's basal participants are mostly between Germany and Poland (hence it's western position).

If we get a boat load of basal L1029 in Belarus and Ukraine, you can make your argument.

Doubtful it's likely to shift. You would need an equal if not greather number of basal popping up.

I was wrong about the British Isles, admitted, but Fennoscandia is much better tested still than say Belorussia, Russia and Ukraine. Sweden has more testers than Russia at FTDNA, yet Russia has 3-4 times the numbers already. Imagine if a country like Russia would have been as well-tested. It is absolutely evident that the whole thing would shift East still, even if my initial comment centered around British Isles testers was false.

Sweden, Finland and Denmark have combined more testers than Russia, Belorussia and Ukraine together - despite the obvious differences population size. And I think nobody here denies that the latter are far more important with far more branch members.
So just based on modern testers, the whole thing would still shift East with more testing density.

I fail to see your point exactly...

Absolute numbers mean nothing. Despite that "3-4 times the numbers" Russia is overwhelmingly within YP417, and only 20 guys are basal, and another 20 scattered through some of the others. 106 in YP417....

That is not going to change. You double that number and still most of it will go into YP417. Older studies clearly showed the M458 hotspots in Belarus run along its south-west into Poland...obvious I think. 

You and many others completely ignore numerous other factors, such as clade diversity, singletons, age, aDNA etc. 

The overwhelming majority of clade diversity and singletons of L1029 are within Germany/Poland/Czechia. When it comes to numbers it's Poland, Germany, Russia.

Considering the intimate/intertwined contact between Balto-Slavs, and Indo-Iranians, where is all the M458 oddballs in Scythians and Sarmatians,  further East?

Why is it we find Z280 with them but zero M458?

For a branch so far East, I expect to see it's aDNA showing up with them and not in Poland, Germany, Czechia and Hungary in La Tene, Hallstatt, and Wielbark..

Simple fact is, the only country that checks off all boxes (numbers, diversity, aDNA) is Poland..

Don't look for it's urheimat any further East than SW Belarus/NW Ukraine, because you are likely not to find it. You also (like many) can't seem to distinguish Y-DNA urheimat from a linguistic urheimat. They are not the same thing.

[YP4648]

I think the point is, if we want to compare two locations we should be comparing them with “equivalent” data.

In this case, per capita testing should be equal between Poland, Ukraine, Belarus, Sweden, Denmark, etc.for us to attempt to draw conclusions regarding “basal” lineages and their prevalence in specific locations relative to others.

[leonardo]

Yeah but how much L1029 is in the British Isles?  I don't doubt it's the case with E-V13 or G2a or U152, clades that came with the Romans and the La Tène Celts, but one lonely Polabian Viking isn't going to change much.  YP619 is itself pulled to the east, due to the Volga German samples listing Saratov, Russia, as their origin.  Well, there is that Volga Tatar with YP619, but there is even more western haplogroups in the Tatars, with examples of U152 and U106 found, the latter most likely from the Goths.

You are right, for that haplogroup the British Isles are not that much of an issue, but there are a couple of other better tested countries, like the Scandinavian ones. Sweden has a relatively high number of testers from this branch. Sweden, Finland and Denmark are in the top 14. Correcting my earlier statement, this should cause just a bit of North West rather than a West pull, relative to the original positioning.
Obviously not as strong as for some other haplogroups and branches, you are right.

It seems like there is a connection between the Nordic nations and M458, including L1029, one that might extend beyond the known relationship between the Polabian Slavs and the Danes especially. As you may know, a few of us have questioned whether M458 had a presence in the Pomeranian Culture, especially as it dispersed around 300 BCE or so. Then there are those samples, from Stolarek, although I know others argue they are contaminated. .

[Moeca]

at post #674

More likely the Italians are the ancient, veneti, histrians, Liburnians and Dalmatians who spoke an old-italic mixed with a central-european language from the bronze age , being replaced over time by Roman Latin prior to any slavs moving into these lands before 600AD

[okshtunas]

I think the point is, if we want to compare two locations we should be comparing them with “equivalent” data.

In this case, per capita testing should be equal between Poland, Ukraine, Belarus, Sweden, Denmark, etc.for us to attempt to draw conclusions regarding “basal” lineages and their prevalence in specific locations relative to others.

I think that's irrelevant when taking into account that no one nation has the same population size. So, absolute numbers equated to each other mean nothing when that equal number may represent a different percentage of the total population in comparison to another.

Additionally, another reason it's irrelevant is that not one person argues for any origin of L1029 in Sweden, British Isles, Denmark, or Finland. However, there is an argument for Poland in numerous ways that testing an equal number, or percentage of people from Belarus or Russia or Ukraine won't change significantly. 75-80% of those tested fall exclusively in YP417 among those groups. Also, alot of M458 in Ukraine so far is L260. M458 in Belarus so far based on modern samples, and some older studies have it strongest in the SW toward the Polish border, and tapering out as it moves away from it. I suspect L1029 is located no further East than the border zones Poland/Belarus/Ukraine meet.

L1029 basal lineages are not very frequent so far outside of Poland/Germany/Czechia. Perfect example is Czechia. With only 96 L1029, they already have 19 basal L1029 lineages and more diversity in clade distribution for downstreams than Russia with 166 L1029, 20 of which are basal (about the same amount), and 75-85% of which is all YP417.

Says alot I think. Especially when Pre-M458 singletons were only found in Poles as far as Slavs are concerned.

[Riverman]

I think the point is, if we want to compare two locations we should be comparing them with “equivalent” data.

In this case, per capita testing should be equal between Poland, Ukraine, Belarus, Sweden, Denmark, etc.for us to attempt to draw conclusions regarding “basal” lineages and their prevalence in specific locations relative to others.

I think that's irrelevant when taking into account that no one nation has the same population size. So, absolute numbers equated to each other mean nothing when that equal number may represent a different percentage of the total population in comparison to another.

Additionally, another reason it's irrelevant is that not one person argues for any origin of L1029 in Sweden, British Isles, Denmark, or Finland. However, there is an argument for Poland in numerous ways that testing an equal number, or percentage of people from Belarus or Russia or Ukraine won't change significantly. 75-80% of those tested fall exclusively in YP417 among those groups. Also, alot of M458 in Ukraine so far is L260. M458 in Belarus so far based on modern samples, and some older studies have it strongest in the SW toward the Polish border, and tapering out as it moves away from it. I suspect L1029 is located no further East than the border zones Poland/Belarus/Ukraine meet.

L1029 basal lineages are not very frequent so far outside of Poland/Germany/Czechia. Perfect example is Czechia. With only 96 L1029, they already have 19 basal L1029 lineages and more diversity in clade distribution for downstreams than Russia with 166 L1029, 20 of which are basal (about the same amount), and 75-85% of which is all YP417.

Says alot I think. Especially when Pre-M458 singletons were only found in Poles as far as Slavs are concerned.

Honestly, just to put things into context, I didn't even suggest that L1029 has to move East of Poland. However, going by the current modern testing data, if correcting the position, it would end more to the South East of Poland, while its now in the Western centre of the country.

And one thing which caused me to comment is not just L1029 itself, but the whole path it seems to take according to Globetrekker. Like most of the SNP's are too Wester, far too. While the L1029 position is still kind of "Okayish", to put it that way, M458, Z283 and Z282 are rather not, IMHO.

Just take away a bit from the Scandinavian pull, which is kind of misleading, and where do you end up? Just think about it. Probably around Lublin? A bit more towards Lviv?

Globetrekker is nice, but its still like guessing with modern data being oftentimes skewed. Probably for R-L1029 less so than for other haplogroups, I'm pretty confident about that, but it remains a factor.

And having tested more Russians, White Russians and Ukrainians would, in that special case, being a correction, likely in the right direction.

[alexfritz]

since the last slide of the slideshow incl the HistoGenes stamp of approval i reckon it could therefor also deal with sites of said project

Show Content

Spoiler Österreichische Akademie der Wissenschaften

the two sites that fall into the Slavic age 8th-10th c. fall into the area between Unstrut and Saale and across the Saale (north of the wElster); the first location could fit both Niederwünsch and Oechlitz but the second location fits neither, thus it could deal with a yet unknown site; there are also actually several sites from the pre-Slavic age 1st-5th c. and one of the slides did use the plural "Pre-Slavic German sites are spread"

specially 74 is interesting as that loc would coincide with the Werenofeld of the Warnen/Warini, and who knows maybe site 35 was also incl in the slides though on which side of the ages is smwhat difficult to say

thats my speculation, cant wait til the data comes out

Thanks for reminding me of the map, Alex. I forgot about it but now remember that we discussed dot 35 before I still hope it is Westheim) Dot 30 (the yellow one) is at the river mouth of the Unstrut into the Saale, this can only be Kleinjena (Naumburg) and 74 is for sure Stößen, linked by Harald Meller to King Berthachar, the brother of the last Thuringian king Herminafried, that's exciting!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_tkbS3jk8s&t=45s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IM8yHKfB2BE&t=12s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HcwNCHzJYjk&t=168s
Dot 14 seems to point to the river moth of the Weisse Elster into the Saale, i.e. Halle and there is the cemetery of Reideburg.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ArOH7p5YQ8k&t=59s
As you say, dot 11 would fit to both Niederwünsch and Oechlitz, they are just 7 km apart from each other.
Dot 59, north of the Bode, east of the Oker, could be the cemetery of Deersheim.
As mentioned, I would have expected Brücken and Großörner, but this is not really supported by the remaining dots but the question is of course how accurate they were set.

Awesome !!!
thanks for the links

i think you are spot on with those sites and 74 looks glorious
maybe 59 is Deersheim (???) eitherway this paper is getting better by the minute

[alexfritz]

Yeah but how much L1029 is in the British Isles?  I don't doubt it's the case with E-V13 or G2a or U152, clades that came with the Romans and the La Tène Celts, but one lonely Polabian Viking isn't going to change much.  YP619 is itself pulled to the east, due to the Volga German samples listing Saratov, Russia, as their origin.  Well, there is that Volga Tatar with YP619, but there is even more western haplogroups in the Tatars, with examples of U152 and U106 found, the latter most likely from the Goths.

For YP263 there are 4 samples from Ireland. That's it. None for the U.K.  There's 159 tested descendants. Some are unknown. Even just calculating the known, 4/117= .0342 or 3%. Also, there actually is 1  from Belarus, 1 from Lithuania, 2 from Ukraine and 7 from Russia. So, Belarus, Lithuania and Ukraine constitute the same count of 4 as the western isles.
https://discover.familytreedna.com/y-dna.../frequency

the L1029-x sample from Bermuda of the R1a1a project is per STRs (NEVGEN) YP263
and the 'Paternal Ancestor Name' and 'Country' is from England

overall L1029 in the British Isles seems to have its 'hotspot' in north England

[leonardo]

Yeah but how much L1029 is in the British Isles?  I don't doubt it's the case with E-V13 or G2a or U152, clades that came with the Romans and the La Tène Celts, but one lonely Polabian Viking isn't going to change much.  YP619 is itself pulled to the east, due to the Volga German samples listing Saratov, Russia, as their origin.  Well, there is that Volga Tatar with YP619, but there is even more western haplogroups in the Tatars, with examples of U152 and U106 found, the latter most likely from the Goths.

For YP263 there are 4 samples from Ireland. That's it. None for the U.K.  There's 159 tested descendants. Some are unknown. Even just calculating the known, 4/117= .0342 or 3%. Also, there actually is 1  from Belarus, 1 from Lithuania, 2 from Ukraine and 7 from Russia. So, Belarus, Lithuania and Ukraine constitute the same count of 4 as the western isles.
https://discover.familytreedna.com/y-dna.../frequency

the L1029-x sample from Bermuda of the R1a1a project is per STRs (NEVGEN) YP263
and the 'Paternal Ancestor Name' and 'Country' is from England

overall L1029 in the British Isles seems to have its 'hotspot' in north England

I would assume because of the Danelaw.