Croatian Migration Era breakdown

[Beast]

I would heavily disregard the "Illyro" as a prefix before the Roman because of the archaeogenetic contexts of these CE samples. Given the uniparental distribution of Croats it is rather evident that BA-IA Illyrian Y-DNA and mtDNA are very rare. Imperial Roman era ancestry, some southeast Urnfield, perhaps also some Daco-Thracian-like source pop would fit the overall picture much better.

Also, on a side note "Balkan_IA" or "Old Balkan" as toponyms are extremely generic considering the diverse genetic makeup of the Paleo-Balkans, as in there is not some sort of homogenous bunch.

No, I disagree. Illyro-Roman is used historiographic term to label Romanized population of Dalmatia and Panonnia. I used both native Balkan like samples (from Croatia only) and Roman_Anatolian like samples (also from Croatia only). Our pre-Slavic part is certainly not fitting to Imperial Roman.

Urnfield sound irrelevant to describe pre-Slavic late antiquity/early medieval population of Croatia, as does Daco-Thracian.

Label Illyro-Roman is generic and describes exatly what it states - Romanized native population. This average is most similar to Tuscans, and it makes sense since Illyrians from Croatia were North Italian like and Anatolian Romans from same area were much more southern, thus a Romanized native mix will come out central-Italian like.

That's not really a counterargument. You're again using a pretty generic term that was used in the Serbian article, you keep referencing, which is "Balkan IA". This will ultimately lead to falsehoods and erroneous conclusions.

The BA-IA Illyrian related archaeogenetic landscape in what is today Croatia is very well mapped out. The CE era samples of that study do not represent an unbroken continuation of BA-IA Illyrian samples of the same region, neither uniparentally nor autosomally.

Modern Croats, again, totally lack Illyrian Y-DNA and mtDNA, some maximum 3% here and there is incredibly rare. E1b-V13 for instance is the most common Paleo-Balkan lineage in Croats but it was absolutely irrelevant during pre-Roman times in the area. Imperial Era Middleastern uniparentals are combined also much more present.

There was not a strict in situ assimilation and non-Slavic components were also picked up along the way.

In Hercegovina there were a bunch of Romanians, Aromanians/Vlachs , they also settled Croatia etc. You also had them in Serbia, Montenegro etc where there were also Albanians.

In fact, the Serbian presence in Bosnia proper is largely thanks to them and other Serb migrations from Serbia etc.

[Southpaw]

The Croatian Paleo-Balkanic autosomal is indeed more Illyrian-like than Thracian-like in autosomal, eventhough Croatians are more Slavic on autosomal than Serbs for instance.

I have seen couple of their results and their Paleo-Balkan tend to lean toward Italy more while Thracian-like toward Greece.

Not to say it makes sense considering their location as well.

[Beast]

As for Albanian West Balkan IA, that is pretty high actually if you include more Central Balkan areas with Thracian and other admixture. So not sure how you got to the conclusion that is low. I'd trust your models as much as I'd trust a Serbian nationalist. However, such calculator results can be misleading given there is also medieval Slavic etc. and intermarriages with South Slavs have occurred. But if you removed that and some of the Roman input I am pretty sure people would plot somewhere where these Illyrians and Thracians plot. Of course you tried to push for the agenda that Albos are heavily Roman Imperial/Anatolian and accused people of manipulating their results. And using some Davidski samples of people who even knows who their ancestors were. Could even be Bulgarian minorities, Vlach or other people with foreign ancestry way back. You have an agenda and are a prime example of an Illyrian gate keeper which is why you also got upset about some of the linguistic arguments. And you seem to regard Illyrians as only on the Adriatic coast when there was clearly an Illyrian component in the inland Balkans too and not just there. So clearly different areas need to be combined. This is why IBD sharing is more important than calculators made by armchair scientists.

Compare the J-L283 found in post-Roman and Roman Croatia to the Iron Age population of Croatia, and you see they show much more east shift than even many Albos compared to IA Albania. And Iron Age Croatia itself shows a west shift compared to the BA because they are mixed with a non-Illyrian component even during the IA such as Italic, Celtic etc .


Regardless, It is pretty obvious Serbs aren't Illyrian nor Croats. Serbs are just Slavic + Albanian, Aromanian, Romanian autosomal DNA that shifted them more south, this is why some calculators give 40%-50% Illyrian since these non-Slavic ethnicties mentioned above plot just east of these samples so they are not accurate results.

[Beast]

The Croatian Paleo-Balkanic autosomal is indeed more Illyrian-like than Thracian-like in autosomal, eventhough Croatians are more Slavic on autosomal than Serbs for instance.

I have seen couple of their results and their Paleo-Balkan tend to lean toward Italy more while Thracian-like toward Greece.

Not to say it makes sense considering their location as well.

The samples from Roman Croatia and post Roman Croatia actually plot nothing like the Iron Age Illyrians. They show huge east shift, much more than Albos. There is also additional Vlach input. So it might seem like it is more Illyrian-like since Iron Age Croatia was the most West shifted Balkan area and from there shifted East. Whatever results you have seen ,  I would not take them serious. Those calculators even give some Albos 80% Illyrian and some Serbs 40%-50% , they are not accurate results. Because the Balkans didn't look like they Iron Age when the Slavs arrived. Post-Roman people they came across such as Dalmatians, Albanians, Romanians, Aromanians etc simply shifted them southwards. And these ethnicities plot east of Illyrians, so the calculators give back whatever you put into it. Iron Age Croatia was like Iberia in many cases and from there shifted towards Italy, Albanians, and even more east. In Croatia there is also more E-V13. The Serb autosomal is also not really Illyrian. They got a bunch of Albanian, Aromanian, Romanian admixture. You cannot use calculators made by armchair scientists as a scientific conclusion.

In what is today Croatia there was also Italian colonies etc. and people are known to have Italian ancestors. Roman and post Roman era samples in Croatia ended up in many cases somewhere where the most east shifted Italians plot , basically at the Albanian-Italian border cluster , they show huge east shift compared to the Iron Age. Some even plot more east etc.

[Southpaw]

The Croatian Paleo-Balkanic autosomal is indeed more Illyrian-like than Thracian-like in autosomal, eventhough Croatians are more Slavic on autosomal than Serbs for instance.

I have seen couple of their results and their Paleo-Balkan tend to lean toward Italy more while Thracian-like toward Greece.

Not to say it makes sense considering their location as well.

The samples from Roman Croatia and post Roman Croatia actually plot nothing like the Iron Age Illyrians. They show huge east shift, much more than Albos. There is also additional Vlach input. So it might seem like it is more Illyrian-like since Iron Age Croatia was the most West shifted Balkan area and from there shifted East. Whatever results you have seen ,  I would not take them serious. Those calculators even give some Albos 80% Illyrian and some Serbs 40%-50% , they are not accurate results. Because the Balkans didn't look like they Iron Age when the Slavs arrived. Post-Roman people they came across such as Dalmatians, Albanians, Romanians, Aromanians etc simply shifted them southwards. And these ethnicities plot east of Illyrians, so the calculators give back whatever you put into it. Iron Age Croatia was like Iberia in many cases and from there shifted towards Italy, Albanians, and even more east. In Croatia there is also more E-V13. The Serb autosomal is also not really Illyrian. They got a bunch of Albanian, Aromanian, Romanian admixture. You cannot use calculators made by armchair scientists as a scientific conclusion.

In what is today Croatia there was also Italian colonies etc. and people are known to have Italian ancestors. Roman and post Roman era samples in Croatia ended up in many cases somewhere where the most east shifted Italians plot , basically at the Albanian-Italian border cluster , they show huge east shift compared to the Iron Age. Some even plot more east etc.

Can you stop with this nonsense?

Just because there is more E-V13 doesn't mean anything. It's like 8-10% E-V13 5-6% J2b2-L283.

I have seen couple of their autosomals to conclude their Paleo-Balkan should be mainly from the region, Dalmatian-Pannonian Illyrians.

[Moeca]

Illyrians where mixing with Adriatic Italians from the bronze-age and all the way into the republican and Imperial Roman republics and Empire, ................ the other great mix of illyrians was with the Ostrogoths ( whose capital was Ravenna Italy ) Ostrogoths controlled most of Italy and the the northern Balkans
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ostrogothic_Kingdom

Slavs came after the Goths and Avars

[Beast]

I don't know the origin of all the E-V13 but there is more E-V13 than R1b-Z2103 or J-L283

"From the haplogroup E (9.8%-10.6%) among Croats the most frequent is subclade E1b1b1a1b-V13 (6.7%), while E1b1b1a3-M149 and E1b1b1c-M123 were also found in small numbers (1.1%).[17] E-V13 it's typical of the populations of south-eastern Europe, peaking among Kosovo Albanians (44%), and is also high among the Macedonians, Greeks, Romanians, Bulgarians and Serbs.[16] The highest frequency in Croatian mainland has been found in Varaždin (16%) and Žumberak (18.2%)[23][19] in central islands Dugi Otok (15.9%) and Ugljan (13.2%), as well southern islands Vis (23.4%) and Mljet (15.4%).[23] In the northern islands of Cres (3%)[23] and Krk (6.8%) was similar to other southern islands (3.7-4.3%).[14] In Bosnian Croats the frequency was the same as among the Croats from Croatia (8.9%).[17] "

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetic_studies_on_Croats

Same thing can be observed in Bosnia and Montenegro. Bosnia was settled by Vlachs/Aromanians/Romanians and Serbs. Hercegovina also had a Vlach population. Montenegro had Albanian and Vlachs too. Eastern Serbia area had Vlachs too. Not sure of how E-V13 is related to the Vlachs in this context. But in Montenegro it is related to some Albanian tribes.

[AimSmall]

Let's stay on topic and be cordial with each other.

   

[Bukva_]

Does anyone know from which study are Croatian and Slovenian samples in standard Davidski spreadsheet?

[Rober_tce]

Please stay on topic. Thanks…

[Bukva_]

Post-Turkish migration from Bosnia can be modeled nicely and It confirms geneology research and history.

Target: Croatian_Central:Slunj
Distance: 1.1503% / 0.01150278
61.0 Pannonia_proxy
39.0 Bosnia_proxy

Distance to: Pannonia_proxy
0.01640639 Slovenian:Slovenian147
0.01657883 Serbia_Gomolava:I1116
0.01810027 Ukrainian_Lviv:EG600014
0.01831102 Croatian_Northwest:Hrvatsko_Zagorje_K0
0.01912515 Ukrainian_Zakarpattia:EG600036
0.01952556 Croatian_Central:Slunj
0.02120759 BosniaHerzegovina_Medieval:I19561
0.02147662 Polish_Wielkopolska_South1
0.02227242 Croatian_Northwest:Hrvatsko_Zagorje_N0
0.02242079 Ukrainian_Lviv:EG600033


Distance to: Bosnia_proxy
0.01695317 Croatian:Croatia_Cro53
0.01935735 Serbian_Bosnia:Rilić:18-646-2
0.01970467 Serbian:Serbian_Serbia1
0.01989530 Hungary_Conqueror_Commoner:IBE-154.SG
0.01995985 Croatian_Bosnia
0.02035563 Slovenian:Slovenian137
0.02050131 Hungary_Conqueror_Elite:CSU-11.SG
0.02079457 Croatian:Croatia_Cro142
0.02101592 Croatia_GornjiKosinj_1650_1750_CE_R-YP613:I35008
0.02130237 Croatian_Bosnia:Central

[Mik]

Post-Turkish migration from Bosnia can be modeled nicely and It confirms geneology research and history.

Target: Croatian_Central:Slunj
Distance: 1.1503% / 0.01150278
61.0 Pannonia_proxy
39.0 Bosnia_proxy

Distance to: Pannonia_proxy
0.01640639 Slovenian:Slovenian147
0.01657883 Serbia_Gomolava:I1116
0.01810027 Ukrainian_Lviv:EG600014
0.01831102 Croatian_Northwest:Hrvatsko_Zagorje_K0
0.01912515 Ukrainian_Zakarpattia:EG600036
0.01952556 Croatian_Central:Slunj
0.02120759 BosniaHerzegovina_Medieval:I19561
0.02147662 Polish_Wielkopolska_South1
0.02227242 Croatian_Northwest:Hrvatsko_Zagorje_N0
0.02242079 Ukrainian_Lviv:EG600033


Distance to: Bosnia_proxy
0.01695317 Croatian:Croatia_Cro53
0.01935735 Serbian_Bosnia:Rilić:18-646-2
0.01970467 Serbian:Serbian_Serbia1
0.01989530 Hungary_Conqueror_Commoner:IBE-154.SG
0.01995985 Croatian_Bosnia
0.02035563 Slovenian:Slovenian137
0.02050131 Hungary_Conqueror_Elite:CSU-11.SG
0.02079457 Croatian:Croatia_Cro142
0.02101592 Croatia_GornjiKosinj_1650_1750_CE_R-YP613:I35008
0.02130237 Croatian_Bosnia:Central

Can you share the cords for your proxies?

[Bukva_]

Can you share the cords for your proxies?

Code:

Pannonia_proxy,0.130859374,0.132191843,0.063951141,0.047133643,0.034803882,0.022944216,0.006341252,0.01008359,-0.000108711,-0.008673318,-0.006254315,-0.004245984,0.007131193,0.020419944,-0.007056774,-0.010572354,-0.015943528,-0.001704275,0.005722738,-0.004437161,-0.003353357,0.000345075,0.006534593,-0.00277519,0.000423148
Bosnia_proxy,0.129022882,0.133456123,0.044947031,0.022462579,0.031889031,0.009562492,0.002454846,0.007790231,0.002121964,-0.002409236,-0.004275195,-0.002158733,0.005006662,0.018089262,-0.012086579,-0.011277051,0.000276656,-0.003158892,0.003419738,-0.009016185,-0.009317251,-0.003791964,0.006721118,0.001480754,0.000944067

Just to keep in mind, these were made to fit my fathers sample.

[Bukva_]

Croatian Modern calculator:

Code:

Pannonia_Medieval,0.12805125,0.1304955,0.060622,0.0479655,0.03039025,0.02454225,0.0045825,0.00801875,0.000307,-0.01239225,-0.00629225,-0.0018735,0.00706125,0.02009275,-0.0041735,-0.00785575,-0.01359275,0.001932,0.00795025,-0.00653425,-0.004492,-0.0022875,0.00727125,-0.0003615,0.0016465
Croatian_Bosnia,0.129228,0.134716,0.046212,0.024892,0.0323415,0.0075175,0.0023265,0.0063075,0.0064935,0.000337,-0.001079,-0.0049325,0.0074305,0.0232955,-0.014474,-0.0054915,0.001515,0.0006185,0.0058425,-0.0051635,-0.0068225,-0.0052895,0.005608,0.002652,-0.002543
Croatian_Littoral,0.12961613,0.13747738,0.05274975,0.027172375,0.035352625,0.01098125,0.0073145,0.008451625,0.0003835,-0.003098,-0.003349375,-0.00400875,0.0032335,0.016446,-0.008974625,-0.004458375,-0.001157,0.000775875,0.005781875,-0.00043775,-0.005505875,-0.00528625,0.004236625,-0.005000625,-0.00006075
Croatian_Herzegovina,0.12406717,0.1384505,0.045191667,0.026862833,0.0328265,0.0081343333,0.0057183333,0.0080766667,0.000818,-0.0047078333,-0.001245,-0.0064693333,0.0077055,0.016400167,-0.012916167,0.0064526667,0.016254833,-0.00012666667,0.0040433333,0.0030223333,-0.0078611667,-0.0013396667,0.00608,-0.0010843333,-0.0010178333
Croatian_Kvarner,0.132604,0.1391275,0.057888,0.039729,0.0372375,0.015757,0.0050525,0.0083075,-0.0036815,-0.0090205,-0.003329,-0.004721,0.0052775,0.013418,-0.009568,-0.000928,0.0123865,-0.0019,0.005279,0.002001,0.000312,-0.0037095,0.0050535,-0.0050005,-0.00018
Croatian_Gorski_Kotar,0.130897,0.132019,0.053551,0.031977,0.0397,0.014502,0.013631,0.013153,0.003886,-0.008383,-0.004222,-0.004946,0.005946,0.004542,-0.006922,0.006232,0.008214,0.003927,0.001383,0.000875,-0.002995,0.005688,0.000986,0.004579,-0.001557
Serbian_West,0.1283924,0.1391276,0.0413324,0.0209304,0.0324366,0.0028448,0.004418,0.0047998,-0.0019634,0.002697,0.0004222,0.0006296,0.0012784,0.0143954,-0.0192994,-0.0012462,0.0092314,0.0022298,0.0090002,-0.0027014,-0.0088842,-0.0030172,0.0050286,0.0002894,-0.002347
German,0.1302626,0.1373792,0.0579811,0.0387068,0.0400035,0.0156461,0.0040665,0.0057865,0.003526,0.00188,-0.0044133,0.0023732,-0.0053706,-0.0025417,0.0085125,0.0032913,-0.0032728,0.0016631,0.0033669,0.0017191,0.00314,0.002005,7.18e-05,0.0083052,0.0002774

Samples used for Pannonia Medieval: 
Serbia_Gomolava:I1116
Austria_Csokorgasse:CSK038
Denmark_Viking:VK274
Bosnia_and_Herzegovina_Medieval:I19561