Croatian Migration Era breakdown

[Leeloo]

I collected unmixed regional Croat G25 samples (real coords only, criteria as following: 4 ethnic Croat grandparents from same area) and created averages based on their regional dialect.

Dialect map: Croatia has 3 major dialects


Green = Štokavian, basies of standard Croatian
Purple = Kajkavian
Blue = Čakavian

Now the results:



Samples used for averages were taken from last Balkan paper on South Slav ethnogenesis. Illyro-Roman average was composed of mixed Balkan_IA and Roman_Anatolian genetic profiles from present-day Croatia, barbarian averages contain Eastern_European like genetic profiles from the paper plus some other suitable samples like Avar_Szolad 2 - also north European like genetic profiles from early medieval Germany and finally, elite Avar samples from Panonnia with East Asian profile for the steppe nomad input.

Conclusion is štokavian and čakavian speaking Croats have essentianly no differences worthy of note while kajkavian speaking Croats do have considerable differences to the rest with more Germanic than old Balkan ancestry while other two on average don't contain any. Kajkavians also have somewhat lower eastern European input than the other two averages although difference isn't by nay means significant.

If you wish to comment my model and conclusions you are very welcome.

[Leeloo]

In case anyone is interested in source averages:

Code:

Illyro-Roman,0.1194005,0.1464056,0.0159648,-0.0210919,0.0260714,-0.0097611,0.0017547,0.0000038,0.0038109,0.0224851,0.0004383,0.0068864,-0.0129608,-0.0054201,-0.0073245,0.0007117,0.0119931,0.0000612,0.007567,-0.00099,-0.0039057,0.002776,-0.0001377,0.0019481,-0.0017564
Slavic_medieval,0.1284778,0.1285914,0.0677402,0.0611681,0.0408152,0.0233222,0.0061981,0.013961,-0.0000511,-0.0212076,-0.0017456,-0.0086172,0.0155721,0.0196114,-0.014607,-0.0009114,0.0054436,0.0007128,0.0012256,0.003064,-0.0040396,-0.0024729,0.0070714,-0.0053319,0.0008081
Asian,0.0375618,-0.3859012,0.0904148,-0.0225292,-0.0805538,-0.0456685,0.0202698,0.0250372,0.0083852,0.0128932,-0.0154268,0.0013115,-0.0023412,0.0050232,0.0066502,-0.000431,-0.0003262,-0.0029138,0.0046195,0.0155075,-0.017594,-0.0044515,-0.016053,-0.0014158,0.0007485
Germanic_medieval,0.129189,0.1322725,0.0662788,0.0567672,0.0413152,0.0171518,0.0069915,0.0040382,0.0012272,-0.0032345,-0.0060085,0.0038965,-0.0106292,-0.0087735,0.0186275,0.0045742,-0.004987,0.0013302,0.006819,0.0065655,0.010201,0.0077902,0.0026498,0.0127725,-0.0005988

Keep in mind they are designed for ethnic Croats, especially Illyro-Roman part. It is not entirely applicable for southeastern Balkans for example. I used only "pure" samples from the paper based on their genomic description in the supplementary material and other extras after extensive testing.

[ph2ter]

[Square]

Thanks for the calc. Works for Serbian as well





Samples From Olalde study 

[Tomenable]

All modern Serbian samples From Olalde study are Serbs from Croatia?

[Square]

All modern Serbian samples From Olalde study are Serbs from Croatia?

No, 5 are from Croatia

[Bukva_]

All modern Serbian samples From Olalde study are Serbs from Croatia?

No, 5 are from Croatia

But they are ethnically Serbs, all places listed have majority Serbian population.

[Bukva_]

Target: Bukva_(Kordun+Ogulin)
Distance: 3.0586% / 0.03058577
65.0 Slavic_medieval
28.2 Illyro-Roman
6.2 Germanic_medieval
0.6 Asian

Target: Bukva_father(Croat_Kordun)
Distance: 3.1787% / 0.03178721
71.8 Slavic_medieval
24.8 Illyro-Roman
3.0 Germanic_medieval
0.4 Asian

[Bukva_]

I collected unmixed regional Croat G25 samples (real coords only, criteria as following: 4 ethnic Croat grandparents from same area) and created averages based on their regional dialect.

Dialect map: Croatia has 3 major dialects


Green = Štokavian, basies of standard Croatian
Purple = Kajkavian
Blue = Čakavian

Now the results:



Samples used for averages were taken from last Balkan paper on South Slav ethnogenesis. Illyro-Roman average was composed of mixed Balkan_IA and Roman_Anatolian genetic profiles from present-day Croatia, barbarian averages contain Eastern_European like genetic profiles from the paper plus some other suitable samples like Avar_Szolad 2 - also north European like genetic profiles from early medieval Germany and finally, elite Avar samples from Panonnia with East Asian profile for the steppe nomad input.

Conclusion is štokavian and čakavian speaking Croats have essentianly no differences worthy of note while kajkavian speaking Croats do have considerable differences to the rest with more Germanic than old Balkan ancestry while other two on average don't contain any. Kajkavians also have somewhat lower eastern European input than the other two averages although difference isn't by nay means significant.

If you wish to comment my model and conclusions you are very welcome.

What samples or how did you model Croatian_Chakavian and Stokavian?

[Bukva_]

Target: Bukva_father
Distance: 1.8274% / 0.01827435
67.2 Slav_proxy
32.4 Illyro-Roman
0.4 Asian

Your Slav_medieval doesn't fit to us that well. This is one I made is more Balto-Slavic like. From 3.17 to 1.82 reduction in distance, and German is gone.

Code:

Slav_proxy,0.13100482,0.127428115,0.076713868,0.070202767,0.037995783,0.031810557,0.011687291,0.013470371,-0.002809884,-0.024040643,-0.006156002,-0.005388771,0.018035942,0.029634356,-0.010994435,-0.008493723,-0.010030366,-0.003818951,0.002675593,-0.00874243,-0.002410523,-0.002930757,0.011274889,-0.003391698,-0.003268445

[Square]

Target: Bukva_father
Distance: 1.8274% / 0.01827435
67.2 Slav_proxy
32.4 Illyro-Roman
0.4 Asian

Your Slav_medieval doesn't fit to us that well. This is one I made is more Balto-Slavic like. From 3.17 to 1.82 reduction in distance, and German is gone.

Code:

Slav_proxy,0.13100482,0.127428115,0.076713868,0.070202767,0.037995783,0.031810557,0.011687291,0.013470371,-0.002809884,-0.024040643,-0.006156002,-0.005388771,0.018035942,0.029634356,-0.010994435,-0.008493723,-0.010030366,-0.003818951,0.002675593,-0.00874243,-0.002410523,-0.002930757,0.011274889,-0.003391698,-0.003268445

Your Slav_proxy reduce distance for some Croatian samples but increase it for others.

[Bukva_]

Target: Bukva_father
Distance: 1.8274% / 0.01827435
67.2 Slav_proxy
32.4 Illyro-Roman
0.4 Asian

Your Slav_medieval doesn't fit to us that well. This is one I made is more Balto-Slavic like. From 3.17 to 1.82 reduction in distance, and German is gone.

Code:

Slav_proxy,0.13100482,0.127428115,0.076713868,0.070202767,0.037995783,0.031810557,0.011687291,0.013470371,-0.002809884,-0.024040643,-0.006156002,-0.005388771,0.018035942,0.029634356,-0.010994435,-0.008493723,-0.010030366,-0.003818951,0.002675593,-0.00874243,-0.002410523,-0.002930757,0.011274889,-0.003391698,-0.003268445

Your Slav_proxy reduce distance for some Croatian samples but increase it for others.

I know, and my proxy is more Baltic shifted. So maybe another parameter should be added, because for some samples It matters.

[Bukva_]

I noticed, if I am wrong correct me, that Slavs from Pannonia do have more of a Baltic shifted Slavic component in comparison to Bosnians, Serbs and Dalmatians. Usually noticed by low distance to Ukraine_Lviv in single.

[Riverman]

Isn't the Germanic component a bit high for the North Western group? Looks as high as in some Slovenians and Hungarians. Do the Kajkavians have known German-Hungarian settlement? How many Kajkavian samples did you use?

[elflock]

I collected unmixed regional Croat G25 samples (real coords only, criteria as following: 4 ethnic Croat grandparents from same area) and created averages based on their regional dialect.

Dialect map: Croatia has 3 major dialects


Green = Štokavian, basies of standard Croatian
Purple = Kajkavian
Blue = Čakavian

Now the results:



Samples used for averages were taken from last Balkan paper on South Slav ethnogenesis. Illyro-Roman average was composed of mixed Balkan_IA and Roman_Anatolian genetic profiles from present-day Croatia, barbarian averages contain Eastern_European like genetic profiles from the paper plus some other suitable samples like Avar_Szolad 2 - also north European like genetic profiles from early medieval Germany and finally, elite Avar samples from Panonnia with East Asian profile for the steppe nomad input.

Conclusion is štokavian and čakavian speaking Croats have essentianly no differences worthy of note while kajkavian speaking Croats do have considerable differences to the rest with more Germanic than old Balkan ancestry while other two on average don't contain any. Kajkavians also have somewhat lower eastern European input than the other two averages although difference isn't by nay means significant.

If you wish to comment my model and conclusions you are very welcome.

I would heavily disregard the "Illyro" as a prefix before the Roman because of the archaeogenetic contexts of these CE samples. Given the uniparental distribution of Croats it is rather evident that BA-IA Illyrian Y-DNA and mtDNA are very rare. Imperial Roman era ancestry, some southeast Urnfield, perhaps also some Daco-Thracian-like source pop would fit the overall picture much better.

Also, on a side note "Balkan_IA" or "Old Balkan" as toponyms are extremely generic considering the diverse genetic makeup of the Paleo-Balkans, as in there is not some sort of homogenous bunch.