R1b-L51 in Yamnaya: Lazaridis 2024

[Mitchell-Atkins]

Not much help on the L23 4500 BC question, but we know L23 sample I0443 was in the Samara Bend area ~3000 BC.  This sample was negative for both L51 and Z2105

Yamnaya Samara Russia Lopatino II, Sok River, Samara [I0443/ SVP 57] M 3300-2700 BC R1b1a2a* (L23) L49+, L23+, PF6399+, L150+, L1353+, PF6509+, M269+, CTS12478+, L51-, Z2105- W3a1a Haak 2015; Mathieson 2015; Sergey Malychev

[R.Rocca]

or to put it simply - L23 was barely branching between 4300 and 3650BC (just that branching into Z2203 and L51 c.4000 then tumbleweed to 3650BC). It was so moribund that they likely stayed together in a single clan through that era. So
A. L23 was likely v small for its first 1000 years.
B. It likely all stayed together in the same confined area for its first 1000 years.
C. That makes it v hard to find until it’s accidentally stumbled on.
D. Something that effected Z2103 (and a few centuries later L51) caused a big uptick on its ability to reproduce in the 3600sBC. That date gained from its TMRCA date are 300 years earlier then the the latest understanding of the dates of that culture. So Z2103 (and L51 was likely nearby) was surely in a culture that was blossoming and doing well in the 300 years prior to Yamnaya proper developing. No other lineage seemed to have whatever advantage Z2103 had in those centuries. The dates of the start of mining at Kargaly is very similar to that of the sudden expansion of Z2103. The early dates were linked to Repin material https://doaj.org/article/b5f79f9e0337476...c89047c878

Perhaps control of that mine from c. 3700BC brought great wealth to the Z2103 lineage. And that could be a clue that they were located in that area

According to the paper, only the "Core Yamnaya" genetic group expanded as opposed to the "Don Yamnaya" which largely stayed behind. The closest plotting Sredny Stog samples to Core Yamnaya are from Vinogradnoe, Oleksandria and Igren, which I've marked in yellow circles on the map below. Oleksandria and Igren are the two largest Sredny Stog cemeteries, so a good indicator of a larger population with room to expand. Given FTDNA's 4250 BC date for L23 and that Sredny Stog began around 4400 BC, at minimum this is where L23 expanded from and could have been it's origin point as well. The caution of course is that all the males (so far) have been I-L699.

[ArmandoR1b]

Not much help on the L23 4500 BC question, but we know L23 sample I0443 was in the Samara Bend area ~3000 BC.  This sample was negative for both L51 and Z2105

Yamnaya Samara Russia Lopatino II, Sok River, Samara [I0443/ SVP 57] M 3300-2700 BC R1b1a2a* (L23) L49+, L23+, PF6399+, L150+, L1353+, PF6509+, M269+, CTS12478+, L51-, Z2105- W3a1a Haak 2015; Mathieson 2015; Sergey Malychev

I0443 has a no-call for CTS1078/Z2103, PF7575/Z2104, S20902 which are all phylogenetic equivalents and upstream to Z2105 since Haplogroup YTree v8.05.01 (03 June 2020)

https://www.yfull.com/arch-8.05/tree/R-Z2103/

FTDNA agrees with YFull with the placement of Z2105 https://discover.familytreedna.com/y-dna/R-M12149/story

[Mitchell-Atkins]

Not much help on the L23 4500 BC question, but we know L23 sample I0443 was in the Samara Bend area ~3000 BC.  This sample was negative for both L51 and Z2105

Yamnaya Samara Russia Lopatino II, Sok River, Samara [I0443/ SVP 57] M 3300-2700 BC R1b1a2a* (L23) L49+, L23+, PF6399+, L150+, L1353+, PF6509+, M269+, CTS12478+, L51-, Z2105- W3a1a Haak 2015; Mathieson 2015; Sergey Malychev

I0443 has a no-call for CTS1078/Z2103, PF7575/Z2104, S20902 which are all phylogenetic equivalents and upstream to Z2105 since Haplogroup YTree v8.05.01 (03 June 2020)

https://www.yfull.com/arch-8.05/tree/R-Z2103/

FTDNA agrees with YFull with the placement of Z2105 https://discover.familytreedna.com/y-dna/R-M12149/story

I pulled that quote from 2017, so your info is more up-to-date.  Thanks for clarifying.

[ArmandoR1b]

Where do you think R-L23 lived around 4300 BC?

L23 was likely just a single man in an M269 derived clan that time.Likely from him to the L51 and Z2103 300 years later it was just a v small clan of mixed L23. It’d be impossible to find the very earliest L23 and probably still very unlikely for several centuries after. The late M269xL23-L23-L51/Z2103 sequence is all in the space of 4300-4000BC so a confined time range. That also falls into the ‘steppe hiatus’ era when things were much more low key on the steppe. Even after 4000BC, Z2203 did no surviving branching for about 400 years and L51 for about 700 years. So it was a quite time for L23 until the middle third of the 3000s. 

But to return to your original question, L23 was just one man or a few brothers in an M269xL23 tribe c. 4300BC. It’s unlikely we will find him but if we find his tribe of that period then the rest would still be M269xL23 and probably the latter remained the majority in his clan or tribe for some time until L23 grew big enough to split off as an independent clan. Though L23 seems to have grown v little at all until after 4000BC so I doubt they were a seperate clan even then. Even Z2103 did very little until the 3600sBC. If the growth was just not happening in L23 from 4300-3650BC it’s quite possible all L23 was still contsindv in a single clan or small tribe as late as 3600BC. So they might have been a clan with a mix of M269x L23, L23*, Z2103 and L51 as late as then. So the appearance of any of those lines in the era 4300-3600BC might well be an indirect indicator of where the rest also were. This could well be why they are hard to spot - just one modest mixed L23 clan in one area 4300-3600BC. Then soon after Z2103 grew rapidly and that likely means they would have split into their own group and also geographically would have needed to expand. 

Another indicator that L23 mostly stayed together in a single tribe or territory 4300-3600BC is the fact that Z2103 and the L51 derivatives had nearly identical autosomal DNA (if you remove later admixture from GAC etc) almost1500years later around 3000-2900BC in yamnaya, Afanasievo, early CW etc. For me this strongly suggests that L23 and it’s Z2103 and L51 derivatives spent most of 4300-3300BC among and latterly v close to each other in a fairly confined area likely between the Don and Volga. I lean slightly more towards the Volga. Perhaps the early L23 ancestor moved from the Don to Volga area around 4000BC before their Z2103 and L151 descendants underwent an expansion back west (but also east) in the 3300-3000BC era. 

If we knew what caused Z2103 and then a few centuries later L51 to be able to expand so much, it might help point out where the L23 location was in the 500-1000 years prior. Something allowed a rather sleepy L23 clan to explode after 3600BC and the Z2203 growth started quite a number of centuries before the classic Yamnaya horizon and migration west. So whatever caused it was likely in situ towards the Volga. p

R-L23 has two phylogenetic equivalents. They are PF6404/MF654103 and L478/PF6403/MF654001. Each SNP takes, on average, about 83 years to appear. So about 83 years after the first fully developed R-M269 person then R-L23, or an equivalent appeared, then 83 years later the next and so on. This of course contradicts the estimate by FTDNA discover of 100 years between the first fully developed R-M269 person and the first fully developed R-L23 person. YFull has a 300 year window between the two.

It is possible that R-L23 and it's equivalents had very few survivors before the R-L51 and R-Z2103 fully developed descendants appeared. Each of those subclades also have several phylogenetic equivalents before being fully developed. So that means there seems to be an even longer period of a lineage with a small number of survivors.

I just realized that an issue with the ancient specimens is that half of the ancient R-L23 downstream specimens don't even have a read for R-L23 or it's equivalents. Those that do have a read don't have a read for it's phylogenetic equivalents. So we might end up with the issue of R-L23 specimens not being detected but only getting some R-M269 reads and downstream no-calls and ancestral reads. The no-calls are important.

Your post help me put into perspective that the discovery of the origin of R-L23 will be very hard now that I look at the no-calls of ancient specimens downstream from R-L23 and the number of phylogenetic equivalents between the first fully developed R-M269 person and the first fully developed subclades directly below R-L23 (R-L51 and R-Z2103).

[ArmandoR1b]

Not much help on the L23 4500 BC question, but we know L23 sample I0443 was in the Samara Bend area ~3000 BC.  This sample was negative for both L51 and Z2105

I0443 has a no-call for CTS1078/Z2103, PF7575/Z2104, S20902 which are all phylogenetic equivalents and upstream to Z2105 since Haplogroup YTree v8.05.01 (03 June 2020)

https://www.yfull.com/arch-8.05/tree/R-Z2103/

FTDNA agrees with YFull with the placement of Z2105 https://discover.familytreedna.com/y-dna/R-M12149/story

I pulled that quote from 2017, so your info is more up-to-date.  Thanks for clarifying.

You're welcome. I try to point out the no-calls to everyone so that they are looked at more closely and more often. Since we are looking for the source population that R-L51 came from we should be looking for the oldest R-L23 derived, or phylogenetically equivalent, specimen but to also note if the specimens have no-calls for pertinent SNPs. It will fun to look the pending R-L23 and downstream specimens.

[ArmandoR1b]

or to put it simply - L23 was barely branching between 4300 and 3650BC (just that branching into Z2203 and L51 c.4000 then tumbleweed to 3650BC). It was so moribund that they likely stayed together in a single clan through that era. So
A. L23 was likely v small for its first 1000 years.
B. It likely all stayed together in the same confined area for its first 1000 years.
C. That makes it v hard to find until it’s accidentally stumbled on.
D. Something that effected Z2103 (and a few centuries later L51) caused a big uptick on its ability to reproduce in the 3600sBC. That date gained from its TMRCA date are 300 years earlier then the the latest understanding of the dates of that culture. So Z2103 (and L51 was likely nearby) was surely in a culture that was blossoming and doing well in the 300 years prior to Yamnaya proper developing. No other lineage seemed to have whatever advantage Z2103 had in those centuries. The dates of the start of mining at Kargaly is very similar to that of the sudden expansion of Z2103. The early dates were linked to Repin material https://doaj.org/article/b5f79f9e0337476...c89047c878

Perhaps control of that mine from c. 3700BC brought great wealth to the Z2103 lineage. And that could be a clue that they were located in that area

According to the paper, only the "Core Yamnaya" genetic group expanded as opposed to the "Don Yamnaya" which largely stayed behind. The closest plotting Sredny Stog samples to Core Yamnaya are from Vinogradnoe, Oleksandria and Igren, which I've marked in yellow circles on the map below. Oleksandria and Igren are the two largest Sredny Stog cemeteries, so a good indicator of a larger population with room to expand. Given FTDNA's 4250 BC date for L23 and that Sredny Stog began around 4400 BC, at minimum this is where L23 expanded from and could have been it's origin point as well. The caution of course is that all the males (so far) have been I-L699.

It would be nice if Lazaridis et al. would report where they are going to look next. We have already discussed that they are going to keep looking and that the likelihood that the origin was in the area that they have already looked is unlikely although possible. It's a bit disconcerting that we are going to have to wait years for more studies to be published. It's been almost 3 years since Papac et al. 2021 was officially published. At least they are focusing on R-L23 now regardless of how hard it is to get reads on a lot of the pertinent SNPs.

[alanarchae]

Archaeologists do tend to derive Repin from roots in Sredny Stog in east Ukraine. So the possibility of L23 coming into existence in Ukraine Sredny Stog but expanding eastwards to the Volga and beyond in the era c. 4000BC or so and then further expanding is not incompatible with archaeology. Perhaps core IE autosomal signal spread with it?

[R.Rocca]

According to the paper, only the "Core Yamnaya" genetic group expanded as opposed to the "Don Yamnaya" which largely stayed behind. The closest plotting Sredny Stog samples to Core Yamnaya are from Vinogradnoe, Oleksandria and Igren, which I've marked in yellow circles on the map below. Oleksandria and Igren are the two largest Sredny Stog cemeteries, so a good indicator of a larger population with room to expand. Given FTDNA's 4250 BC date for L23 and that Sredny Stog began around 4400 BC, at minimum this is where L23 expanded from and could have been it's origin point as well. The caution of course is that all the males (so far) have been I-L699.

Unlike the Sredny Stog samples that are all I-699, 39% (n = 9) of the "Don Yamnaya" samples are R1b. Five of them are interesting in that they are of high enough quality that their "basal" calls in Table 1 may actually hold up. Two are M269, two are L23 and one is L51. Unfortunately no Sredny Stog samples from the Don have been tested yet (all tested samples are from Ukraine). 

[alanarchae]

According to the paper, only the "Core Yamnaya" genetic group expanded as opposed to the "Don Yamnaya" which largely stayed behind. The closest plotting Sredny Stog samples to Core Yamnaya are from Vinogradnoe, Oleksandria and Igren, which I've marked in yellow circles on the map below. Oleksandria and Igren are the two largest Sredny Stog cemeteries, so a good indicator of a larger population with room to expand. Given FTDNA's 4250 BC date for L23 and that Sredny Stog began around 4400 BC, at minimum this is where L23 expanded from and could have been it's origin point as well. The caution of course is that all the males (so far) have been I-L699.

Unlike the Sredny Stog samples that are all I-699, 39% (n = 9) of the "Don Yamnaya" samples are R1b. Five of them are interesting in that they are of high enough quality that their "basal" calls in Table 1 may actually hold up. Two are M269, two are L23 and one is L51. Unfortunately no Sredny Stog samples from the Don have been tested yet (all tested samples are from Ukraine). 

There seems a v high chance that Don Sredy Stog will indeed be heavy in M269 and autosomally relevant to later Yamnaya. From an archaeological point of view Sredny Stog has been seen not only as a group that migrated west but also as a group that formed a vast chain of networking and exchange running all the way from Volga to the Balkans, likely in little relay like chains. It has always seemed to me that that would have some kind of geneflow impact as well as possibly linguistic one while the network lasted. Anthony and others seem to think Repin c. 3900-3300BC derived from Don Stedny Stog not in situ in the Volga etc. And of course one of the most popular theories is that Yamnaya in the archaeological cultural sense derived from Repin.

So although we lack samples to prove it, a lot of roads relating to M269 seem to hint the Don was important. But imo they still need a good deal more sampling to really be clear of the story. I am unaware of any DNA from Repin culture. I also note there is a paper in Russian that seems to dispute that Repin specifically originated  the Don then expanded east and west. However it’s fully in Russian and I can’t even work out what other areas they are suggesting  https://www.academia.edu/28691611/About_...n_English_

[alanarchae]

The information on the Repin culture in English seem extremely limited given that many see at as the origin of/an early stage of the Yamnaya culture. I can’t even find a distribution map though there does seem to be a belief that it stretched from the Volga (or even beyond) to the Dnieper after a more limited early phase around the Don. AFAIK Repin (bizarrely) has not been sampled for ancient DNA. Given it chronologically bridges the gap between Sredny Stog and Yamnaya (archaeologically speaking) that seems a terrible gap in our knowledge. I’m not sure why it’s unsampled. I’ve certainly heard of Repin Kurgans.

[Southpaw]

One thing i wonder, how did Basques ended up being so high in R1b-L51?

Could it be that Basque language could have in fact been one of the many Steppe languages distantly related to IE, any consensus on Basque language?

Also the Iberians prior to Latinization were supposed to speak a non IE language, yet they are high on R1b, what do we know of Iberian language, if there are any few traces of toponyms, hydronyms etc, etc.

How does Iberian/Basque R1b compares to other Celtic and/or Italic subclades?

It's a funny paradox, Basque is supposed to be the last standing non-IE language yet they are one of the highest R1b carriers as a group afaik.

[jdean]

According to the paper, only the "Core Yamnaya" genetic group expanded as opposed to the "Don Yamnaya" which largely stayed behind. The closest plotting Sredny Stog samples to Core Yamnaya are from Vinogradnoe, Oleksandria and Igren, which I've marked in yellow circles on the map below. Oleksandria and Igren are the two largest Sredny Stog cemeteries, so a good indicator of a larger population with room to expand. Given FTDNA's 4250 BC date for L23 and that Sredny Stog began around 4400 BC, at minimum this is where L23 expanded from and could have been it's origin point as well. The caution of course is that all the males (so far) have been I-L699.

Unlike the Sredny Stog samples that are all I-699, 39% (n = 9) of the "Don Yamnaya" samples are R1b. Five of them are interesting in that they are of high enough quality that their "basal" calls in Table 1 may actually hold up. Two are M269, two are L23 and one is L51. Unfortunately no Sredny Stog samples from the Don have been tested yet (all tested samples are from Ukraine). 

There seems a v high chance that Don Sredy Stog will indeed be heavy in M269 and autosomally relevant to later Yamnaya. From an archaeological point of view Sredny Stog has been seen not only as a group that migrated west but also as a group that formed a vast chain of networking and exchange running all the way from Volga to the Balkans, likely in little relay like chains. It has always seemed to me that that would have some kind of geneflow impact as well as possibly linguistic one while the network lasted. Anthony and others seem to think Repin c. 3900-3300BC derived from Don Stedny Stog not in situ in the Volga etc. And of course one of the most popular theories is that Yamnaya in the archaeological cultural sense derived from Repin.

So although we lack samples to prove it, a lot of roads relating to M269 seem to hint the Don was important. But imo they still need a good deal more sampling to really be clear of the story. I am unaware of any DNA from Repin culture. I also note there is a paper in Russian that seems to dispute that Repin specifically originated  the Don then expanded east and west. However it’s fully in Russian and I can’t even work out what other areas they are suggesting  https://www.academia.edu/28691611/About_...n_English_

Don't know if this helps, it's from Google translate

Summing up our review, we can confidently state today that there is almost a consensus opinion of the scientific community about the identity of the early stage of the Yamnaya culture and the Repin type of monuments. Concept of A.T. Sinyuk's claim about the origin and long-term existence of Repin's monuments in the Middle Don did not find new confirmation. There is also no doubt about the presence of local roots in each regional massif of early Pit-grave monuments. The basis for their formation in the Volga region were monuments of the Khvalynsko-Berezhnovsky type, in the Middle Dnieper, Middle Don and Podonechye - late monuments of the Sredny Stog culture, in the Lower Dnieper and Azov regions - monuments of the Lower Mikhailovsky type. For the territory of the Lower Don region such monuments have not yet been established.

[Kale]

What do ya'll make of the sample KTL001 (3502-3343BCE) in this context of origin of Yamnaya. It seems half Cernavoda half Yamnaya.

Ukraine_Kartal_Cernavoda_KTL001
Ukraine_Kartal_Cernavoda_A 0.459790 0.0612400 7.50800
Yamnaya_Samara 0.540210 0.0612400 8.82119
Tail: 0.23
right = c('Congo_Mbuti.DG', 'Anatolia_Barcin_N.SG', 'Anatolia_Boncuklu_N.SG', 'Iran_TepeAbdulHosein_N.SG', 'Iran_Wezmeh_N.SG', 'CHG.SG', 'Morocco_OUB002_Epipaleolithic.SG', 'Morocco_SKH001_MN.SG', 'Italy_GrottaContinenza_HG.SG', 'Bichon.SG', 'Sweden_StoraForvar_HG.SG', 'RUS_Arkhangelsk_HG.SG', 'Botai.SG', 'Afanasievo_KarasukIII.SG', 'Yamnaya_Kazakhstan_Karagash.SG', 'Andaman_100BP.SG', 'RUS_Primorsky_DevilsCave_N.SG', 'Peru_RioUncallane_1800BP.SG')
allsnps=TRUE

[R.Rocca]

The information on the  Repin culture in English seem extremely limited given that many see at as the origin of/an early stage of the Yamnaya culture. I can’t even find a distribution map though there does seem to be a belief that it stretched from the Volga (or even beyond) to the Dnieper after a more limited early phase around the Don. AFAIK Repin (bizarrely) has not been sampled for ancient DNA.  Given it chronologically bridges the gap between Sredny Stog and Yamnaya (archaeologically speaking) that seems a terrible gap in our knowledge. I’m not sure why it’s unsampled. I’ve certainly heard of Repin Kurgans.

Core Yamnaya is Sredny Stog "High" + Remontnoye as the latter includes more Anatolian Neolithic and Caucasus-derived ancestry than Sredny Stog alone. The only Remontnoye male is R-V1636, which is the uber-Volva male lineage and the one attributed to the spread of Indo-Anatolian by way of the CLV cline. So, there was a genetic shift slightly to the east for the formation of Core Yamnaya. The Caspian marked Yamnaya samples are all at least M269 and mostly Z2103.