J2b-L283

[Polska]

https://youtu.be/SLaSv1nb1Xo?si=DX_NrCCIfXKQALUE

This YouTube channel (Andrei DNA) analyzes ancient DNA samples for various traits and makes videos highlighting what he’s discovered.

Here he’s made one for sample R474, the J2b L283 Etruscan under CTS6190.

[Sephesakueu]

https://youtu.be/SLaSv1nb1Xo?si=DX_NrCCIfXKQALUE

This YouTube channel (Andrei DNA) analyzes ancient DNA samples for various traits and makes videos highlighting what he’s discovered.

Here he’s made one for sample R474, the J2b L283 “Etruscan” under CTS6190.

Hellow Polska
I did not get the quotation marks, his autossomal is not atypical for a etruscan, he scores nearly 10% WHG, around 30% steppe rest anatolian farm closest ops spanish , portuguese and north italians.

[Polska]

https://youtu.be/SLaSv1nb1Xo?si=DX_NrCCIfXKQALUE

This YouTube channel (Andrei DNA) analyzes ancient DNA samples for various traits and makes videos highlighting what he’s discovered.

Here he’s made one for sample R474, the J2b L283 “Etruscan” under CTS6190.

Hellow Polska
I did not get the quotation marks, his autossomal is not atypical for a etruscan, he scores nearly 10% WHG, around 30% steppe rest anatolian farm closest ops spanish , portuguese and north italians.

Yeah, I probably shouldn’t have put the quotation marks as the burial was an Etruscan style inhumation.  I agree, his autosomal ancestry seems Etruscan, but is also quite comparable to those from the western Balkans.  I seem to remember his Yamnaya ancestry as being unique (Moots study) in that it was a 1:1 ratio of EHG to CHG percentages.  Now we have the 2 Serbian samples atop the CTS6190 tree and an ancient (not very old, though) CTS6190 from Montenegro as well.  So his (R474) male line likely migrated from the western Balkans to the Italian peninsula at some point, perhaps with some west Balkan/Illyrian group. 2900 ybp formation date on R474’s branch:

https://www.yfull.com/tree/J-Y45181/

The vast majority of sampled Etruscans to date belong to R1b U152.

Here’s an interesting chart that plots Roman and Etruscan samples from 2 studies based on EHG and CHG percentages.  R474 stands out.

   

[targaryen]

Very interesting. I would assume a graph about J2B2-L283 would closely follow that of the blue line, if there is enough data that is.

With the same setting, the same Figure for J-L283 is very different (only two caucasian lineages among modern samples) :
1. Main decoupling South-Eastern-Europe(SEE)/Caucasus occurs ~3500 BCE (with the only Armenian samples connecting at J-L283 root).
2. One small later coupling for SEE/Caucasus carried by a single lineage in Georgia with a ~1000 BCE connection to SEE (but in fact this Georgian sample is connected to western/northern Europe around Roman era).

PS: KDC001 from Russia ~2000 BCE is either J-L283* or J-Z622* according to YFULL, which therefore connects Caucasus with SEE around the same epoch (3500 BCE) if this lineage is not on the branch of the Armenian modern sample.

If trying to connect J-L283 with R-Z2103 movements ... J-L283 have to be linked with an early movement that didn't left significant traces for R-Z2103 in South-Eastern Europe.
Connecting J-L283 with major surviving R-Z2103 SEE lineage during copper age is, to be polite, pure fantasy.

While a Steppic origin of J-L283 is "feasible", making it move toward the west significantly later than ~3500 BCE didn't sounds realistic considering the diversity.
To me, the most likely is that J-L283 and surviving R-Z2103 modern clades met in western Balkans at some point between ~2300 and 2000 BCE.
In particular considering that the major Balkanic J-Z597s suclades are to be connected with Cetina expansion likely under some Bell-Beaker presure around ~2500 BCE. The upper ~J-Z615 diversity is hard to solve (3 attested lineages in ancient Balkans DNA but with a huge spread, +two lineages at least yet to be found with modern western Affinity).

At upper stages: J-Z600, J-Z2509, or J-Z585 levels there is basically no diversity in the Balkans.
The first sample (Z585+, Z615-) from the Balkans have been recentely repported from Greece by a FTDNA customer, but have a TMRCA matching Bizantine-era movements from Sicily toward Greece (which is the most likely scenario).
Considering that the hot-spot of Z585 diversity is around the Tyrrhenian-sea, and that not a single (Z585+, Z615-) have been found from Cetina culture, main arrival of J-L283 in the Western Balkans seems to be connected with J-Z615 (most likely in the Eastern-Alps/North-Western Balkans region).

Previous diversity stage are hard to solve, as the J-L283 only yields three branches with very different locations (Caucasus, Hungary, and the successfull J-Z622 lineage).
To me, it fits quite well with an origin around the Black sea pre-3500 BCE (to be able to send a lineage into the Caucasus by ~2000 BCE, considering that KDC001 is typically local, Kura-Araxes/Maykop-like, he have been there for centuries). But I won't express any strong idea about the exact location :
1. In Anatolia with an entrance in Europe around 3500 CBE ? (this is maybe the solution I would slightly favor with the data we currently have)
2. Stuck in some SEE small Neolithic/Eneolithic population (or even mediteranean Islanders) ?
3. With WSH ? But in that case it needs to be connected with an "early migration wave" toward the west (that indeed existed to some extend).
4. Significantly more exoctic, but could J-L283 be some lost lineage from Middle-east emerging from the north-western edge of the Urukean expansion ? While the trip would be big for this clades ... we have clear Urukean expansion signal for distant cousins of J-L283.

For the early stage of J-L283 I do not exclude many thing, the only constraints to me is that such movement needs to occur relatively close in time from ~3500 BCE and to be able to source both Europe and the Caucasus.
Later movements to explains European J-L283s would need to carry a lot of "old" diversity, and therefore imply masive population displacement ... which would induce significant autosomal signal (due to demographic and phylogenic considerations wuch solution is highly unlikely for J-L283).

In the current state of the data, the ~L283 level of diffusion could only be solved by a very lucky deep-tested ancient sample that would be close enough from the TMRCA with the main branch to provide real insight about L283 trajectory.
We would need deep testing of such ancient sample, because finding a ~J-L283 lineage, if it separates millenia before being found from the main surviving lineage , it would not provide very relevant informations.
But considering the current absence of ~Eneolithic/Neolithic J-L283, it seems reasonable to suspect that this clade wasn't significantly spread during that time (making the probability of finding one quite small).

Some peoples spread rumors about a J-L283 eneolithic sample from Moldavia ... but more than ~3 years later, the sample is not there.

Apart from KDC001, the other two earliest J2B2-L283 samples are MBA in Serbia, north of Danube/close to Hungarian border, and northeastern Albania.

This to me screams some kind of a migration from the North Caucasus around the Black Sea and along the Danube, so naturally a Yamnaya vector makes sense, given that that's the exact route the Yamnayas took given kurgan locations.

But the 3500 BC is also interesting, because that is when Yamnaya took over from Sredny Stog. And when "Core PIE"/"Late PIE" was formed. The Suvorovo Culture of the rumoured J2B2-L283 seems a kurganite-steppe culture, but maybe a cousin of it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suvorovo_culture

[GHurier]

Apart from KDC001, the other two earliest J2B2-L283 samples are MBA in Serbia, north of Danube/close to Hungarian border, and northeastern Albania.

This to me screams some kind of a migration from the North Caucasus around the Black Sea and along the Danube, so naturally a Yamnaya vector makes sense, given that that's the exact route the Yamnayas took given kurgan locations.

But the 3500 BC is also interesting, because that is when Yamnaya took over from Sredny Stog. And when "Core PIE"/"Late PIE" was formed. The Suvorovo Culture of the rumoured J2B2-L283 seems a kurganite-steppe culture, but maybe a cousin of it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suvorovo_culture

I'm not very "conformatable" with using the "oldest sample" logic, particularly when the oldest samples are ~1500+ years after the TMRCA.

To me the key part is that we have fairly ancient DNA from four early branches (separated by ~3500 BCE) :
1. Caucasus around ~2000 BCE, with a typical Maykop/Kura-Araxes profile
2. Balkans for J-Z615 around ~2000 BCE for the earliest samples, with typical profiles for the epoch and locations
3. Sardinia for J-YP91 & J-YP157 around ~1200 BCE on the same site with typically Nuragic profiles.

All samples from the Balkans are up to now J-Z615, when analysed in the context of J-L283-level migration, they only count as one single man around ~3000 BCE. Therefore, such samples even if they were 100 wouldn't be more indicative that any of the other lineage. A later founder effect can not provide informations about the path of a distant ancestor.

Thus, for BA-attested lineages, we have 3 different profiles, with only one carrying steppe ancestry.

For exemple, you look at the dates and the caucasian sample, and you scream "Yamnaya".
But if now I look at the dates and the Z2509/Z585 Tyrrhenian modern diversity cluster (also confirmed by Nuragic diversity cluster for ancient DNA) ... I might be inclined to see a correlation with Copper-age diffusion, and I will consider a potential link with Mediteranean Islands or even Anatolia.

This is why the WSH-options it not my favored one, while I'll stay open to it ... the vector toward Tyrrhenian sea to produce the observed diversity cluster is definitely not the easiest one.

Going for the claimed "Moldovan sample" ... if from Suvorovo culture, this culture is at the contact point between SEE Neolithic and WSH. If such sample airs, it will likely be a fairly ambiguous situation with mixed ancestry.

[targaryen]

Apart from KDC001, the other two earliest J2B2-L283 samples are MBA in Serbia, north of Danube/close to Hungarian border, and northeastern Albania.

This to me screams some kind of a migration from the North Caucasus around the Black Sea and along the Danube, so naturally a Yamnaya vector makes sense, given that that's the exact route the Yamnayas took given kurgan locations.

But the 3500 BC is also interesting, because that is when Yamnaya took over from Sredny Stog. And when "Core PIE"/"Late PIE" was formed. The Suvorovo Culture of the rumoured J2B2-L283 seems a kurganite-steppe culture, but maybe a cousin of it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suvorovo_culture

I'm not very "conformatable" with using the "oldest sample" logic, particularly when the oldest samples are ~1500+ years after the TMRCA.

To me the key part is that we have fairly ancient DNA from four early branches (separated by ~3500 BCE) :
1. Caucasus around ~2000 BCE, with a typical Maykop/Kura-Araxes profile
2. Balkans for J-Z615 around ~2000 BCE for the earliest samples, with typical profiles for the epoch and locations
3. Sardinia for J-YP91 & J-YP157 around ~1200 BCE on the same site with typically Nuragic profiles.

All samples from the Balkans are up to now J-Z615, when analysed in the context of J-L283-level migration, they only count as one single man around ~3000 BCE. Therefore, such samples even if they were 100 wouldn't be more indicative that any of the other lineage. A later founder effect can not provide informations about the path of a distant ancestor.

Thus, for BA-attested lineages, we have 3 different profiles, with only one carrying steppe ancestry.

For exemple, you look at the dates and the caucasian sample, and you scream "Yamnaya".
But if now I look at the dates and the Z2509/Z585 Tyrrhenian modern diversity cluster (also confirmed by Nuragic diversity cluster for ancient DNA) ... I might be inclined to see a correlation with Copper-age diffusion, and I will consider a potential link with Mediteranean Islands or even Anatolia.

This is why the WSH-options it not my favored one, while I'll stay open to it ... the vector toward Tyrrhenian sea to produce the observed diversity cluster is definitely not the easiest one.

Going for the claimed "Moldovan sample" ... if from Suvorovo culture, this culture is at the contact point between SEE Neolithic and WSH. If such sample airs, it will likely be a fairly ambiguous situation with mixed ancestry.

Wait, what? The Sardinians are clearly downstream. The North C. sample is interesting because it's a very basal branch in a region where we know J originated (Caucasus). Sardinia was an EEF holdout with influences from mainland Italy.  As for Suvorovo, this is a clear kurganite culture, just like Yamnaya. I won't say it's a PIE language, but maybe some PIE-sibling.

But as for dating, you yourself pointed out the key ones

3500 BC -> Main branch/ Sredny Stog goes to Yamnaya (Core PIE is formed)
3000 BC -> IE expansion starts to take place.

So the younger Z615 matches Balkan Yamnaya migrations very well, just like RZ2103. The Sardinian ones are much later and could either be some minor Balkan one that migrated to Italy, or maybe even a yet-undiscovered lineage Bell Beakers separate from Balkan Yamnaya.

[GHurier]

Wait, what? The Sardinians are clearly downstream. The North C. sample is interesting because it's a very basal branch in a region where we know J originated (Caucasus). Sardinia was an EEF holdout with influences from mainland Italy.  As for Suvorovo, this is a clear kurganite culture, just like Yamnaya. I won't say it's a PIE language, but maybe some PIE-sibling.

But as for dating, you yourself pointed out the key ones

3500 BC -> Main branch/ Sredny Stog goes to Yamnaya (Core PIE is formed)
3000 BC -> IE expansion starts to take place.

So the younger Z615 matches Balkan Yamnaya migrations very well, just like RZ2103. The Sardinian ones are much later and could either be some minor Balkan one that migrated to Italy, or maybe even a yet-undiscovered lineage Bell Beakers separate from Balkan Yamnaya.

Downstream of what (that's a very strange claim to be honest) ?
-The Tyrrhenian modern diversity cluster at Z2509 and Z585 levels (3500-3000 BCE diversity signal) is probably the first one we can track for J-L283 ... it involves Sardinia, Italy, and Sicily. Whereas such diversity is totaly absent from any other locations.
-The Nuragic samples showed on the same site YP91 and YP157 ... this is a 3500 BCE diversity signature. Considering that the only location with J-L283 samples in Nuragic Sardinia have not been tested at older dates for pre-Nuragic cultures ... it would be weird to consider J-L283 absence in pre-Nuragic sites when J-L283 have not been found in those sites during Nuragic times.

Beyond that, you have few YP91 and Z597 that are clearly later re-injections in Sardinia (what we usually call a pile-up signal ...). But the ~3500-3000 BCE diversity cluster is quite strong.
This is the reason explaining that nearly all automated tools are placing J-Z2509 or J-Z585 around northern Italy ...

About Suvorovo, it clearly have EEF influences regarding ceramics. It is a culture in the contact zone. 
It received influences from both WSH and EEF.
Anyway, the rumored sample is just not in our hands yet.
Even if it exists, even if it is from Suvorovo culture, even if it is ~100% WSH (I read many "steppic fans" claiming various cultural background for this samples ...), what is his relation with J-L283 mainline ?
--> CHG influence in the Steppe are suposed to have arrived from south-Caucasus somewhere between 5000 BCE and 4000 BCE.
--> If it is a J-L283 branch, separating from the main branch before ~4500 BCE, it will be impossible to use this sample to track the main J-L283 one. It would be as silly as trying to infer the indian J-M241s path using J-L283 samples.

Many strange claims in your post, the strangest one is the denial about the Tyrrhenian 3500-3000 BCE diversity cluster ... whereas it is supported by both modern and ancient DNA (~1200 BCE).

[targaryen]

Downstream of what (that's a very strange claim to be honest) ?

Downstream of the basal branches around the Caucasus in Russia and Armenia. The Sardinians are of the same origin as every other European J2B2-L283 today.



I think you should brush up on the archeological horizons, because 3500 BC is the exact period when Core PIE/Yamnaya was formed, and 3000 BC is the migration. And Suvorovo clearly shows links to the steppes.

"The facts are these. Around 4200 BCE herders who probably came from the Dnieper
valley appeared on the northern edge of the Danube Delta in the area occupied at the time by the
farming Bolgrad culture of ‘Old Europe’. These migrants built kurgan graves and carried maces
with stone heads shaped like horse heads. These objects then began appearing in the towns of
Old Europe. They acquired copper either by trade or loot from the Lower Danube towns, most
of which made its way back to the steppes of the Lower Dnieper but some were buried with the
wealthy elites in the kurgans. The steppe culture involved in this migration has been labeled the
Suvorovo culture named after cluster of graves near the Danube delta is the Suvorovo group.
These are identical to those of the Novodanilovka group back along the Dnieper and so the
complex is named the Suvorovo-Novodanilovka (Figure 7). They probably just represent the
chiefly elites of the Srendi Stog culture since their burials and lithics are identical. There are
about thirty-five to forty cemeteries assigned to the complex, most containing fewer than ten
graves. Anthony (2007: 251) says that the Suvorovo-Novodanilovka elite were involved in
raiding and trading with the lower Danube valley during the Tripolye B1 period, just before the
collapse of Old Europe.
These Suvorovo graves of the Danube delta were always marked by a mound, or kurgan,
as markers on this new frontier land or possible as an imitation of the mounded tells"

https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/84119263.pdf

[GHurier]

Downstream of the basal branches around the Caucasus in Russia and Armenia. The Sardinians are of the same origin as every other European J2B2-L283 today.

Technically, they are nearly at the same level, they trace the same epoch at maybe ~few generations of separation.
But indeed, the Caucasian samples represent samples that were likely left "behind" at the moment of the march toward the west.

Contrary to what you seems to believe, it didn't imply a WSH origin. Multiple solutions are possible :
-WSH origin (having many caveats to diffuse clades at Z2509 and Z585 levels)
-Anatolian/Eastern-Mediteranean Island (The one I would favor as of today)
-EEF as a minor lineage maybe among Trypilians (sadly the caucasian hub would pass by the steppe, whereas the Caucasian sample we have is WSH-less).

We have four lineages documented during BA, being "independant" since ~3500 BCE :
1 is Kura-Araxes like
1 is EEF/WSH admixted
2 are EEF
 
While "intense" attempts to link this lineage to the steppe are made by some peoples, for interesting reasons the BA samples we have up to now are showing that the earlier lineages of J-L283 are for 3 of them out of 4 found without WSH-dna.

I think you should brush up on the archeological horizons, because 3500 BC is the exact period when Core PIE/Yamnaya was formed, and 3000 BC is the migration. And Suvorovo clearly shows links to the steppes.

You only look at the part of the data that suits your idea.
Let take it that way: (i) we have a "broad" starting point (around Black-sea), (ii) we have a "broad" destination (Tyrrhenian sea), and (iii) a rough estimation of the timing ~3500 BCE.
To solve this "puzzle", I personnally didn't find that WSH is the best option to be the vector (because the "destination" of most of the diversity didn't really fit with what we know of the WSH expansion).

The major difficulty with your proposal is to source the north-Italian diversity cluster around ~3500/3000 BCE.
From what you wrote before, you proposed BBs as the vector ? But this is way to late in time for this option to work ... this is not realistic.
What is the mechanism to separate clades following a ~3100 BCE diversity segregation with a ~2100 BCE movement ?
You also propose the Balkans as the source if I remember. Strange proposition, you propose to source a well segmented diversity ~3100 BCE cluster with younger populations that didn't exhibit diversity at this level ... sounds quite anachronic to me.

On the other side, we do know that an innovation spread around Tyrrhenian sea around ~3500 BCE ... the copper-metallurgy.
With the current data, I find this vector way more convincing, with J-L283 as a "specialist", that could have integrated populations without inducing significant admixture-modifications.

[targaryen]

Downstream of the basal branches around the Caucasus in Russia and Armenia. The Sardinians are of the same origin as every other European J2B2-L283 today.

Technically, they are nearly at the same level, they trace the same epoch at maybe ~few generations of separation.
But indeed, the Caucasian samples represent samples that were likely left "behind" at the moment of the march toward the west.

Contrary to what you seems to believe, it didn't imply a WSH origin. Multiple solutions are possible :
-WSH origin (having many caveats to diffuse clades at Z2509 and Z585 levels)
-Anatolian/Eastern-Mediteranean Island (The one I would favor as of today)
-EEF as a minor lineage maybe among Trypilians (sadly the caucasian hub would pass by the steppe, whereas the Caucasian sample we have is WSH-less).

We have four lineages documented during BA, being "independant" since ~3500 BCE :
1 is Kura-Araxes like
1 is EEF/WSH admixted
2 are EEF
 
While "intense" attempts to link this lineage to the steppe are made by some peoples, for interesting reasons the BA samples we have up to now are showing that the earlier lineages of J-L283 are for 3 of them out of 4 found without WSH-dna.

I think you should brush up on the archeological horizons, because 3500 BC is the exact period when Core PIE/Yamnaya was formed, and 3000 BC is the migration. And Suvorovo clearly shows links to the steppes.

You only look at the part of the data that suits your idea.
Let take it that way: (i) we have a "broad" starting point (around Black-sea), (ii) we have a "broad" destination (Tyrrhenian sea), and (iii) a rough estimation of the timing ~3500 BCE.
To solve this "puzzle", I personnally didn't find that WSH is the best option to be the vector (because the "destination" of most of the diversity didn't really fit with what we know of the WSH expansion).

The major difficulty with your proposal is to source the north-Italian diversity cluster around ~3500/3000 BCE.
From what you wrote before, you proposed BBs as the vector ? But this is way to late in time for this option to work ... this is not realistic.
What is the mechanism to separate clades following a ~3100 BCE diversity segregation with a ~2100 BCE movement ?
You also propose the Balkans as the source if I remember. Strange proposition, you propose to source a well segmented diversity ~3100 BCE cluster with younger populations that didn't exhibit diversity at this level ... sounds quite anachronic to me.

On the other side, we do know that an innovation spread around Tyrrhenian sea around ~3500 BCE ... the copper-metallurgy.
With the current data, I find this vector way more convincing, with J-L283 as a "specialist", that could have integrated populations without inducing significant admixture-modifications.

You have to differentiate the Core PIE migrations and Core PIE formation. Formation happened ~3500 BC from Sredny Stog, and migrations ~3000 BC, with the exception of Tocharian which is slightly earlier. Also, I think you keep expecting archeological movements to always synchronize with the exact date when archeogeneticists label something different. Saying BB is too late for that, is like  saying BB is too late for R1b-L51 because R1b-L51 mutated 6100 years ago, while BB came after that. 

The question is whether J2B2-L283 existed as a minor CHG-origin lineage amongst the Sredny Stog elites, and if the Moldova sample is true, than the answer is yes. Then Sredny Stog later on gave birth to Yamnaya, CW, BBC, etc...

As for its origin, J2B2-L283 doesn't exist outside of Europe during the BA, so all the Tyrrhenian stuff is nonsense. We have thousands of EEF samples with 0 signs of J2B2-L283 nor a direct parent.

[GHurier]

You have to differentiate the Core PIE migrations and Core PIE formation. Formation happened ~3500 BC from Sredny Stog, and migrations ~3000 BC, with the exception of Tocharian which is slightly earlier. Also, I think you keep expecting archeological movements to always synchronize with the exact date when archeogeneticists label something different. Saying BB is too late for that, is like  saying BB is too late for R1b-L51 because R1b-L51 mutated 6100 years ago, while BB came after that. 

The question is whether J2B2-L283 existed as a minor CHG-origin lineage amongst the Sredny Stog elites, and if the Moldova sample is true, than the answer is yes. Then Sredny Stog later on gave birth to Yamnaya, CW, BBC, etc...

As for its origin, J2B2-L283 doesn't exist outside of Europe during the BA, so all the Tyrrhenian stuff is nonsense. We have thousands of EEF samples with 0 signs of J2B2-L283 nor a direct parent.

I always said to my students that the choice of words are important.
For instance, here we see that you focuss on a terminology about "IE-populations" ... whereas in a genetic discussion I would expect to see you speak of WSH.

BBs formed as a network where clades expanded starting ~2800 BCE, and reaching Italy ~2100 BCE.
Again, you fail to propose a mechanism that wouldn't produce calde correlation around the migration time ... while producing a segragation of clades based on a ~1000 years old diversity patern.
Statistically, the likelyhood of such proposal is ~0.

IF the Moldovan sample is "true" includes many layers :
-Is it true indeed ?
-What is his profile ?
-How does he relates to L283 and when did he split of ?
So many questions without answear that didn't sounds like secured ground to build hypotheses.
I know that WSH-supporters are kind of disapointed by the lack of confirming data and the statistical caveats of their "models". But this is not a reasons to "invent" data.
This sample will be adressed when we will have it in hands !

For your late claim, it absolutely makes no-sense at all :
--> You over-estimate the quality of ancient DNA sampling both in terms of spatial distribution and even local depth.
--> I will inform you that J-L283 have not be found anywhere in the steppe so far ... and is not present among Steppe derived population before ~2000 BCE.
--> There is no "direct-parent" of J-L283 who survived at all, which favors the idea that J-L283 was likely a poorly diffused lineage, and was likely stuck somewhere (maybe in Anatolia).
--> The Tyrrhenian history of J-L283 starts ~3500 BCE or few centuries after at worst. If you look for them there in ~4000 BCE, you won't find them.

The fact, that you didn't even try to address a potential Copper-Age related diffusion mechanism speaks volumes.
You are just running after some "mighty Indo-European riders" narratives ...
I let you the final word if you want, I see no point to continue this discussion when you fails to adress any of the arguments I propose !

[corrigendum]

Another study which shows the impact of Cetina and its role in the transmission of pre-CE subclades of J-L283 beyond the Balkans:

Abstract
Background: The Italic Iron Age was characterized by the presence of various ethnic groups partially examined from a genomic perspective. To explore the evolution of Iron Age Italic populations and the genetic impact of Romanization, we focused on the Picenes, one of the most fascinating pre-Roman civilizations, who flourished on the Middle Adriatic side of Central Italy between the 9th and the 3rd century BCE, until the Roman colonization. Results: We analyzed more than 50 samples, spanning more than 1,000 years of history from the Iron Age to Late Antiquity. Despite cultural diversity, our analysis reveals no major differences between the Picenes and other coeval populations, suggesting a shared genetic history of the Central Italian Iron Age ethnic groups. Nevertheless, a slight genetic differentiation between populations along the Adriatic and Tyrrhenian coasts can be observed, possibly due to genetic contacts between populations residing on the Italian and Balkan shores of the Adriatic Sea. Additionally, we found several individuals with ancestries deviating from their general population. Lastly, In the Late Antiquity period, the genetic landscape of the Middle Adriatic region drastically changed, indicating a relevant influx from the Near East. Conclusions: Our findings, consistently with archeological hypotheses, suggest genetic interactions across the Adriatic Sea during the Bronze/Iron Age and a high level of individual mobility typical of cosmopolitan societies. Finally, we highlighted the role of the Roman Empire in shaping genetic and phenotypic changes that greatly impacted the Italian peninsula.


https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/...8.585512v1

Y chromosome data of the Italic IA groups provide additional evidence to these observations, suggesting that the two scenarios proposed are complementary. Indeed, in the Picenes, two main Y haplogroups are observed, namely R1-M269/L23 (58% of the total) and J2-M172/M12 (25% of the total) (Additional file 1: Table S13), which may be representative of the direct connection to Central Europe and the Balkan peninsula, respectively.

On the other hand, it is worth noting that the trans-Adriatic distribution of the internal branches of J2-M172/M12 was previously interpreted as a clue of a BA expansion from the Balkans in the Italian area and a link between BA Balkans and BA Nuragic Sardinia, possibly with peninsular Italian intermediates that were not observed before [19,49]. Interestingly, two out of three of our J2-M12 Picene samples (PN91 and PN101), due to their phylogenetic position (Additional file 3: Fig. S10) in between the BA Nuragic and the BA Balkan clusters, could represent the descendants of the aforementioned Italian intermediates.

From an archaeological perspective, the extensive connections across the two peninsulas throughout the BA and IA are well-characterized. Strong commercial trans-Adriatic routes were already present from the 3rd millennium BCE [7]. During the Early BA the Cetina culture, although rooted in the Dalmatian coast, spread throughout the Adriatic, eventually reaching Sicily, Malta and Western Greece hese contacts persisted throughout the BA [43] and during the IA they were strongly consolidated. Indeed, the extensive presence of shared cultural traits across the two sides of the Adriatic Sea has allowed some authors to describe an “Adriatic koiné” (Adriatic culture) to emphasize this circulation of goods and perhaps individuals [44–46]. Similarly, the possible genetic relationship between Northern/Central Europe and the Middle Adriatic region could be supported by the observed material connections between the Hallstatt culture along the Danube River and Northern-Central Italy, already starting from the Late BA

[targaryen]

You have to differentiate the Core PIE migrations and Core PIE formation. Formation happened ~3500 BC from Sredny Stog, and migrations ~3000 BC, with the exception of Tocharian which is slightly earlier. Also, I think you keep expecting archeological movements to always synchronize with the exact date when archeogeneticists label something different. Saying BB is too late for that, is like  saying BB is too late for R1b-L51 because R1b-L51 mutated 6100 years ago, while BB came after that. 

The question is whether J2B2-L283 existed as a minor CHG-origin lineage amongst the Sredny Stog elites, and if the Moldova sample is true, than the answer is yes. Then Sredny Stog later on gave birth to Yamnaya, CW, BBC, etc...

As for its origin, J2B2-L283 doesn't exist outside of Europe during the BA, so all the Tyrrhenian stuff is nonsense. We have thousands of EEF samples with 0 signs of J2B2-L283 nor a direct parent.

I always said to my students that the choice of words are important.
For instance, here we see that you focuss on a terminology about "IE-populations" ... whereas in a genetic discussion I would expect to see you speak of WSH.

BBs formed as a network where clades expanded starting ~2800 BCE, and reaching Italy ~2100 BCE.
Again, you fail to propose a mechanism that wouldn't produce calde correlation around the migration time ... while producing a segragation of clades based on a ~1000 years old diversity patern.
Statistically, the likelyhood of such proposal is ~0.

IF the Moldovan sample is "true" includes many layers :
-Is it true indeed ?
-What is his profile ?
-How does he relates to L283 and when did he split of ?
So many questions without answear that didn't sounds like secured ground to build hypotheses.
I know that WSH-supporters are kind of disapointed by the lack of confirming data and the statistical caveats of their "models". But this is not a reasons to "invent" data.
This sample will be adressed when we will have it in hands !

For your late claim, it absolutely makes no-sense at all :
--> You over-estimate the quality of ancient DNA sampling both in terms of spatial distribution and even local depth.
--> I will inform you that J-L283 have not be found anywhere in the steppe so far ... and is not present among Steppe derived population before ~2000 BCE.
--> There is no "direct-parent" of J-L283 who survived at all, which favors the idea that J-L283 was likely a poorly diffused lineage, and was likely stuck somewhere (maybe in Anatolia).
--> The Tyrrhenian history of J-L283 starts ~3500 BCE or few centuries after at worst. If you look for them there in ~4000 BCE, you won't find them.

The fact, that you didn't even try to address a potential Copper-Age related diffusion mechanism speaks volumes.
You are just running after some "mighty Indo-European riders" narratives ...
I let you the final word if you want, I see no point to continue this discussion when you fails to adress any of the arguments I propose !

The steppe goes into northern Bulgaria lol. So yes if the Moldova sample is true, it's in the steppes.

[elflock]

https://youtu.be/SLaSv1nb1Xo?si=DX_NrCCIfXKQALUE

This YouTube channel (Andrei DNA) analyzes ancient DNA samples for various traits and makes videos highlighting what he’s discovered.

Here he’s made one for sample R474, the J2b L283 Etruscan under CTS6190.

Since there are J2b-L283 Picene samples; the authors from the Picenes paper have commented on eye color predictions: Interestingly, the Picenes have a greater proportion of individuals with blue eyes (30.2%) and blond hair color (20.9%) than other Italic populations.

[corrigendum]

The new study about the Picentes is the first paper which indirectly links Yamnaya migrations in the Balkans with populations which carried J-L283:

Code:

Picene_Novilara_IA:PN101__J2-M172/M12
Picene_Novilara_IA:PN57__J2-M172/M12
Picene_Novilara_IA:PN91__J2-M172/M12

More in general, a significant differentiation is observed in the distribution along the PC2 of the Tyrrhenian people (Italy_IA_Romans and Etruscans, which are slightly closer to modern Sardinians) and the Adriatic group (Picenes and Italy_IA_Apulia, which tends to form a cluster shifted towards the ancient Yamnaya pastoralists) (Mann-Whitney U Test p-value < 0.0001; Additional file 3: Fig. S4).

the comparison of Tyrrhenian and Adriatic groups shows that the Bronze Age cluster tends to be more similar to the Tyrrhenian populations (Additional file 2: Table S6). Moreover, by performing D-statistics in the form D(Italy_IA_Adriatic, Italy_IA_Tyrrhenian; Italy_BA_EBA, YRI.SG), the Italian BA cluster results to be more related to the Tyrrhenian side (Fig. 3A; Additional file 2: Table S6). This result may suggest that the Adriatic and the Tyrrhenian sides of Italy were shaped by different demographic events after or during the Bronze Age