I looked up some numbers and what we might deduce from it from the FTDNA data base, concentrating on BigY-tested participants, but also including additional numbers for the country statistics form the SNP and Family Finder testers.
I will start with some statistics about BigY partiicants in some of the main E-V13 branches:
E-Z5018: 41,08% (Upstream E-FTT49 41,62%)
Under E-Z5018:
E-S2979: 30%
Under E-S2979, 3 main branches:
E-FGC11457: 12,10% (mostly under E-FGC11451 11,53% of it)
E-L241: 8,35%
E-Y3183: 6,89%
E-Z5017: 22,9%
Under E-Z5017, main branch:
E-Z5016: 18,03%
Under E-Z5016, main branch:
E-CTS9320: 15,88%
This makes 4 single ancestors (of CTS9320, E-FGC11451, L241, Y3183 respectively), all under E-Z5018/Z5017, with a last common ancestor for each branch between 1.300-1.000 BC, which account all in all for about 43% of all modern E-V13 males.
E-Z5018 and E-Z5017 together make up 64 % of all modern E-V13 males. So almost 2/3 of all modern V13 males stem from common ancestors born around 2.100-2.000 BC.
Even more drastic is the dominance of their ancestor, E-BY3880, from about 2.200 BC, which accounts for 91,74% of all E-V13 males.
On the other hand, this means that all non-E-BY3880 E-V13 members make up just 8,26%, of which the Slavo-Germanic founder lineage of E-L540/E-S3003, with a late recent common ancestor in Antiquity makes up 2,35 %, which leaves a mere 5,92 % of other separate branches from E-BY3880.
Let's look at the differences of the above mentioned 4 LBA-EIA branches by country statistics and what we can read out of it.
Start with the biggest of the 4, and the only one which comes from E-Z5017:
E-CTS9320: What sticks out at first is that England is very low for which branch, especially if comparing with the 3 Z5018 branches.
England makes up a mere 4 % of the total. Germany is clearly dominant, but followed by Bulgaria, Italy, Albania, Poland, Greece.
E-FGC11457: Number one is England, followed by Germany, Finland, Switzerland, Italy, Russia.
E-L241: Again starting with England, Germany, Poland, Russia, Albania, Czech, France.
E-Y3183: Germany, Italy, Montenegro, Ireland, Bulgaria, England, again at a mere 5 % of the total.
I think its pretty evident that we deal with a North to South distribution from: E-FGC11457 -> E-L241 -> E-Y3183 -> E-CTS9320
Compare with this map I made recently:
![[Image: Dacian-Thracian.jpg]](https://i.ibb.co/wdk60pN/Dacian-Thracian.jpg)
What's also typical, is that these 4 branches dominate the samples from Avar Hungary as far as they could be assigned to a downstream clade, proving their existence around the Tisza-Danube regions. Further evidence for a more Northern position especially of FGC11457 and L241 and their access to the steppe is that they are the most common branches of E-V13 in China.
Now back to the numbers we can see for England: It is pretty interesting that the more Southern distributed branches of the 4, E-CTS9320 and E-Y3183 are far less common in England, than the Northern ones: 4-5% (E-CTS9320, E-Y3183) vs. 10-14 % (E-FGC11457, E-L241).
For E-CTS9320 its not just the total frequency, but also the branch membership. Like in E-L241 and E-FGC11457 a far higher number of branches has English members, they are much better represented.
All the more interesting is, that Germany was reached by E-CTS9320 in appreciable numbers, but England was not.
In my opinion this speaks for seperate Northern routes for the Northern branches, either with Celts, Dacians (Roman era) and Germanics for E-FGC11457, E-L241, which reached England on its own.
That's to say about those branches which I all place into the North Thracian - Dacian sphere, but still on different positions from North to South, and different access to the steppe and Middle Danube-Alpine zone, since remarkably, E-FGC11457, E-L241 are both more common in England and China, at both of the edges of the modern distribution. My personal guess would be a presence in the Sanislau group (cremating, Upper Tisza centre) of the Vekerzug culture, which was particularly important for both the West (into Hallstatt-La Tene) and East (steppe, Asia) movements of these branches.
That the Slavic dispersal played, obviously, no role in England can also be proven by E-S3003 (L540) which has so far no single member from Britain. If a Slavic-East Germanic into Germanic expansion would have played any role, for England (why should it one might ask, but still good to test), when E-S3003 should prove it. Yet its practically absent. On the other hand, Scandinavia, Sweden and Norway, got affected. Even Iberians got one, on YFull, but British not:
https://www.yfull.com/tree/E-L540/
I think with the data coming in, both ancient and modern, the ancient distribution of E-V13 branches gets more shape and conclusions can be made, even if still somewhat speculative.
The big timing of 2.200-2.000 for the first major expansion, at the root of the E-BY3880 and its main branches growth, is a very notable date. Two very important cultures from the Carpatho-Balkan sphere date to this period: Otomani culture and Wietenberg culture.
Otomani-Füzesabony was R-Z283 dominated, by newcomers, but the Eastern group, the cremating Gyulavarsand group between Füzesabony and Wietenberg, that one was rather a descendant from Nyírség.
I think that between Füzesabony-Otomani and Wietenberg, in the zone from which Suciu de Sus emerged, the bulk of E-BY3880 was centered in the time from about 2.300-1.600 BC. Later expanding with different groups, but especially Gáva-related Channelled Ware (Gáva-Holigrady, Belegis II-Gáva, Vartop, Knobbed Ware etc.).
The big advantage of this hypothesis is that it can account for all the major demographic expansions we can deduce from the modern E-V13 data:
- 2.200-2.000 BC: Formation of Eastern Otomani-Gyulvarsand and Wietenberg in the Transtisza-Transylvanian region
- 1.700-1.300 BC: Formation of the Suciu de Sus culture and related groups, which formed the base for the Gáva culture and the Channelled/Knobbed Ware expansion
- 1.300-1.000 BC: Gáva-related Channelled Ware expansion into Moldova and the Central and Eastern Balkans in particular.
At every 3 of these big turning and formation points, we can observe big jumps, growth rates for E-V13, especially during the formation of Suciu de Sus in the Upper Tisza zone and and during the Channelled Ware expansion.
There is no alternative group I know of which correlates that well with this pattern we can deduce from modern E-V13 testers.
I will start with some statistics about BigY partiicants in some of the main E-V13 branches:
E-Z5018: 41,08% (Upstream E-FTT49 41,62%)
Under E-Z5018:
E-S2979: 30%
Under E-S2979, 3 main branches:
E-FGC11457: 12,10% (mostly under E-FGC11451 11,53% of it)
E-L241: 8,35%
E-Y3183: 6,89%
E-Z5017: 22,9%
Under E-Z5017, main branch:
E-Z5016: 18,03%
Under E-Z5016, main branch:
E-CTS9320: 15,88%
This makes 4 single ancestors (of CTS9320, E-FGC11451, L241, Y3183 respectively), all under E-Z5018/Z5017, with a last common ancestor for each branch between 1.300-1.000 BC, which account all in all for about 43% of all modern E-V13 males.
E-Z5018 and E-Z5017 together make up 64 % of all modern E-V13 males. So almost 2/3 of all modern V13 males stem from common ancestors born around 2.100-2.000 BC.
Even more drastic is the dominance of their ancestor, E-BY3880, from about 2.200 BC, which accounts for 91,74% of all E-V13 males.
On the other hand, this means that all non-E-BY3880 E-V13 members make up just 8,26%, of which the Slavo-Germanic founder lineage of E-L540/E-S3003, with a late recent common ancestor in Antiquity makes up 2,35 %, which leaves a mere 5,92 % of other separate branches from E-BY3880.
Let's look at the differences of the above mentioned 4 LBA-EIA branches by country statistics and what we can read out of it.
Start with the biggest of the 4, and the only one which comes from E-Z5017:
E-CTS9320: What sticks out at first is that England is very low for which branch, especially if comparing with the 3 Z5018 branches.
England makes up a mere 4 % of the total. Germany is clearly dominant, but followed by Bulgaria, Italy, Albania, Poland, Greece.
E-FGC11457: Number one is England, followed by Germany, Finland, Switzerland, Italy, Russia.
E-L241: Again starting with England, Germany, Poland, Russia, Albania, Czech, France.
E-Y3183: Germany, Italy, Montenegro, Ireland, Bulgaria, England, again at a mere 5 % of the total.
I think its pretty evident that we deal with a North to South distribution from: E-FGC11457 -> E-L241 -> E-Y3183 -> E-CTS9320
Compare with this map I made recently:
What's also typical, is that these 4 branches dominate the samples from Avar Hungary as far as they could be assigned to a downstream clade, proving their existence around the Tisza-Danube regions. Further evidence for a more Northern position especially of FGC11457 and L241 and their access to the steppe is that they are the most common branches of E-V13 in China.
Now back to the numbers we can see for England: It is pretty interesting that the more Southern distributed branches of the 4, E-CTS9320 and E-Y3183 are far less common in England, than the Northern ones: 4-5% (E-CTS9320, E-Y3183) vs. 10-14 % (E-FGC11457, E-L241).
For E-CTS9320 its not just the total frequency, but also the branch membership. Like in E-L241 and E-FGC11457 a far higher number of branches has English members, they are much better represented.
All the more interesting is, that Germany was reached by E-CTS9320 in appreciable numbers, but England was not.
In my opinion this speaks for seperate Northern routes for the Northern branches, either with Celts, Dacians (Roman era) and Germanics for E-FGC11457, E-L241, which reached England on its own.
That's to say about those branches which I all place into the North Thracian - Dacian sphere, but still on different positions from North to South, and different access to the steppe and Middle Danube-Alpine zone, since remarkably, E-FGC11457, E-L241 are both more common in England and China, at both of the edges of the modern distribution. My personal guess would be a presence in the Sanislau group (cremating, Upper Tisza centre) of the Vekerzug culture, which was particularly important for both the West (into Hallstatt-La Tene) and East (steppe, Asia) movements of these branches.
That the Slavic dispersal played, obviously, no role in England can also be proven by E-S3003 (L540) which has so far no single member from Britain. If a Slavic-East Germanic into Germanic expansion would have played any role, for England (why should it one might ask, but still good to test), when E-S3003 should prove it. Yet its practically absent. On the other hand, Scandinavia, Sweden and Norway, got affected. Even Iberians got one, on YFull, but British not:
https://www.yfull.com/tree/E-L540/
I think with the data coming in, both ancient and modern, the ancient distribution of E-V13 branches gets more shape and conclusions can be made, even if still somewhat speculative.
The big timing of 2.200-2.000 for the first major expansion, at the root of the E-BY3880 and its main branches growth, is a very notable date. Two very important cultures from the Carpatho-Balkan sphere date to this period: Otomani culture and Wietenberg culture.
Otomani-Füzesabony was R-Z283 dominated, by newcomers, but the Eastern group, the cremating Gyulavarsand group between Füzesabony and Wietenberg, that one was rather a descendant from Nyírség.
I think that between Füzesabony-Otomani and Wietenberg, in the zone from which Suciu de Sus emerged, the bulk of E-BY3880 was centered in the time from about 2.300-1.600 BC. Later expanding with different groups, but especially Gáva-related Channelled Ware (Gáva-Holigrady, Belegis II-Gáva, Vartop, Knobbed Ware etc.).
The big advantage of this hypothesis is that it can account for all the major demographic expansions we can deduce from the modern E-V13 data:
- 2.200-2.000 BC: Formation of Eastern Otomani-Gyulvarsand and Wietenberg in the Transtisza-Transylvanian region
- 1.700-1.300 BC: Formation of the Suciu de Sus culture and related groups, which formed the base for the Gáva culture and the Channelled/Knobbed Ware expansion
- 1.300-1.000 BC: Gáva-related Channelled Ware expansion into Moldova and the Central and Eastern Balkans in particular.
At every 3 of these big turning and formation points, we can observe big jumps, growth rates for E-V13, especially during the formation of Suciu de Sus in the Upper Tisza zone and and during the Channelled Ware expansion.
There is no alternative group I know of which correlates that well with this pattern we can deduce from modern E-V13 testers.