G25 simulations for unsampled populations

[Codaman]

Code:

North_Africa_IBM_Eurasian,0.049527,0.110710,-0.035170,-0.111666,0.019553,-0.078088,-0.038889,0.042840,0.199326,0.005212,0.043831,-0.031336,0.114421,-0.063096,0.100870,-0.010432,0.005517,-0.060396,-0.156066,0.105044,-0.047146,-0.120130,0.097622,-0.025768,0.009330
North_Africa_IBM_African,-0.559158,0.033576,-0.005788,-0.052644,0.040917,-0.025093,-0.132650,-0.014830,0.097618,0.001561,-0.006600,-0.042484,0.016730,-0.026550,0.022505,-0.079905,0.012366,-0.072296,-0.128360,-0.060262,-0.026325,-0.140938,0.034598,0.004816,0.033334
AASI,0.004008,-0.209811,-0.192678,0.165842,-0.029213,0.060440,-0.011233,0.021998,0.107572,0.064948,0.004451,0.004607,-0.002121,0.009538,-0.026420,-0.033699,0.019463,-0.006220,-0.009489,0.037443,0.013468,0.014248,-0.006298,0.016171,-0.014469
Steppe_CHG,0.097705,0.115827,-0.084332,-0.010972,-0.085477,0.024185,0.022568,-0.000757,-0.121404,-0.070748,-0.008331,0.026969,-0.047484,0.001417,0.025979,-0.023989,0.031503,-0.004912,-0.020904,0.033579,0.009843,-0.009342,0.012491,-0.008174,0.008568
Steppe_HG,0.134035,0.063750,0.104763,0.208472,-0.018840,0.072586,-0.004160,-0.006015,-0.042340,-0.098453,0.005512,-0.013809,0.018860,-0.039866,0.054016,0.028918,-0.025701,-0.004216,0.000404,0.005257,-0.010056,0.008511,0.014612,0.030147,-0.011178

A few notes about these. IBM_Eurasian is not the exact same thing as Basal Eurasian but it's probably somehow related to the concept. I have not been able to make a Basal Eurasian sim that works for both Iran_N and Natufians. 
Steppe_CHG is quite close to Kotias but Steppe_HG is a bit different from EHG.
I can make more simulations if anyone can think of any other unsampled ghost populations.

[Capsian20]

Code:

North_Africa_IBM_Eurasian,0.049527,0.110710,-0.035170,-0.111666,0.019553,-0.078088,-0.038889,0.042840,0.199326,0.005212,0.043831,-0.031336,0.114421,-0.063096,0.100870,-0.010432,0.005517,-0.060396,-0.156066,0.105044,-0.047146,-0.120130,0.097622,-0.025768,0.009330
North_Africa_IBM_African,-0.559158,0.033576,-0.005788,-0.052644,0.040917,-0.025093,-0.132650,-0.014830,0.097618,0.001561,-0.006600,-0.042484,0.016730,-0.026550,0.022505,-0.079905,0.012366,-0.072296,-0.128360,-0.060262,-0.026325,-0.140938,0.034598,0.004816,0.033334
AASI,0.004008,-0.209811,-0.192678,0.165842,-0.029213,0.060440,-0.011233,0.021998,0.107572,0.064948,0.004451,0.004607,-0.002121,0.009538,-0.026420,-0.033699,0.019463,-0.006220,-0.009489,0.037443,0.013468,0.014248,-0.006298,0.016171,-0.014469
Steppe_CHG,0.097705,0.115827,-0.084332,-0.010972,-0.085477,0.024185,0.022568,-0.000757,-0.121404,-0.070748,-0.008331,0.026969,-0.047484,0.001417,0.025979,-0.023989,0.031503,-0.004912,-0.020904,0.033579,0.009843,-0.009342,0.012491,-0.008174,0.008568
Steppe_HG,0.134035,0.063750,0.104763,0.208472,-0.018840,0.072586,-0.004160,-0.006015,-0.042340,-0.098453,0.005512,-0.013809,0.018860,-0.039866,0.054016,0.028918,-0.025701,-0.004216,0.000404,0.005257,-0.010056,0.008511,0.014612,0.030147,-0.011178

A few notes about these. IBM_Eurasian is not the exact same thing as Basal Eurasian but it's probably somehow related to the concept. I have not been able to make a Basal Eurasian sim that works for both Iran_N and Natufians. 
Steppe_CHG is quite close to Kotias but Steppe_HG is a bit different from EHG.
I can make more simulations if anyone can think of any other unsampled ghost populations.

Target: CapsianWGS_scaled
Distance: 12.8610% / 0.12861049
38.4 North_Africa_IBM_Eurasian
32.0 Steppe_CHG
23.2 North_Africa_IBM_African
6.4 Steppe_HG

[old europe]

Code:

North_Africa_IBM_Eurasian,0.049527,0.110710,-0.035170,-0.111666,0.019553,-0.078088,-0.038889,0.042840,0.199326,0.005212,0.043831,-0.031336,0.114421,-0.063096,0.100870,-0.010432,0.005517,-0.060396,-0.156066,0.105044,-0.047146,-0.120130,0.097622,-0.025768,0.009330
North_Africa_IBM_African,-0.559158,0.033576,-0.005788,-0.052644,0.040917,-0.025093,-0.132650,-0.014830,0.097618,0.001561,-0.006600,-0.042484,0.016730,-0.026550,0.022505,-0.079905,0.012366,-0.072296,-0.128360,-0.060262,-0.026325,-0.140938,0.034598,0.004816,0.033334
AASI,0.004008,-0.209811,-0.192678,0.165842,-0.029213,0.060440,-0.011233,0.021998,0.107572,0.064948,0.004451,0.004607,-0.002121,0.009538,-0.026420,-0.033699,0.019463,-0.006220,-0.009489,0.037443,0.013468,0.014248,-0.006298,0.016171,-0.014469
Steppe_CHG,0.097705,0.115827,-0.084332,-0.010972,-0.085477,0.024185,0.022568,-0.000757,-0.121404,-0.070748,-0.008331,0.026969,-0.047484,0.001417,0.025979,-0.023989,0.031503,-0.004912,-0.020904,0.033579,0.009843,-0.009342,0.012491,-0.008174,0.008568
Steppe_HG,0.134035,0.063750,0.104763,0.208472,-0.018840,0.072586,-0.004160,-0.006015,-0.042340,-0.098453,0.005512,-0.013809,0.018860,-0.039866,0.054016,0.028918,-0.025701,-0.004216,0.000404,0.005257,-0.010056,0.008511,0.014612,0.030147,-0.011178

A few notes about these. IBM_Eurasian is not the exact same thing as Basal Eurasian but it's probably somehow related to the concept. I have not been able to make a Basal Eurasian sim that works for both Iran_N and Natufians. 
Steppe_CHG is quite close to Kotias but Steppe_HG is a bit different from EHG.
I can make more simulations if anyone can think of any other unsampled ghost populations.

How would you describe the difference between steppe HG and EHG?

[Codaman]

Target: CapsianWGS_scaled
Distance: 12.8610% / 0.12861049
38.4 North_Africa_IBM_Eurasian
32.0 Steppe_CHG
23.2 North_Africa_IBM_African
6.4 Steppe_HG

I think it would be a decent fit if you add a PPNB source. PPNB itself can be modeled as IBM_Eurasian + Upper Paleolithic West Asian in a very general sense.

Target: Israel_Natufian
Distance: 16.0703% / 0.16070333
57.2 Georgia_Kotias_UP
37.0 North_Africa_IBM_Eurasian
5.8 Ethiopia_4500BP
0.0 North_Africa_IBM_African

Target: Israel_PPNB
Distance: 18.2977% / 0.18297677
74.4 Georgia_Kotias_UP
25.6 North_Africa_IBM_Eurasian
0.0 Ethiopia_4500BP
0.0 North_Africa_IBM_African

How would you describe the difference between steppe HG and EHG?

Steppe_HG is a bit less WHG than the EHG samples from further north.

Target: Russia_Sidelkino_HG.SG:Sidelkino_noUDG.SG
Distance: 6.3593% / 0.06359285
62.6 Russia_AfontovaGora3
32.8 Italy_North_Villabruna_HG
4.6 Georgia_Kotias.SG

Target: Russia_Samara_HG:I0124
Distance: 6.9852% / 0.06985157
63.4 Russia_AfontovaGora3
28.4 Italy_North_Villabruna_HG
8.2 Georgia_Kotias.SG

Target: Steppe_HG
Distance: 12.1154% / 0.12115377
65.2 Russia_AfontovaGora3
22.0 Italy_North_Villabruna_HG
12.8 Georgia_Kotias.SG

But the components are only a part of it. It's packed with the kind of drift that was found in both Afanasievo and Corded Ware so it should with some level of success differentiate populations which are directly related to Proto-Indo-Europeans from those which have generally similar genotypes.
Btw, does anyone know anything about this sample? it looks very out of place and time.
I6184, 6000-5300 BCE
mtDNA: H15a1a1
Y-DNA: R1a1a1

Target: Romania_Mesolithic_Neolithic:I6184
Distance: 2.9943% / 0.02994253
52.4 Steppe_HG
21.2 Turkey_N
18.0 Steppe_CHG
8.4 Italy_North_Villabruna_HG

[Capsian20]

Well thanks you , I added Levant_PPNB
This result
Target: CapsianWGS_scaled
Distance: 3.8757% / 0.03875711
55.0 Levant_PPNB
22.2 North_Africa_IBM_African
12.0 North_Africa_IBM_Eurasian
9.2 Steppe_HG
1.6 Steppe_CHG

Levant_PPNB,0.072847,0.1639064,-0.0316026,-0.1361132,0.0332986,-0.0645352,-0.0134426,-0.0147684,0.0741604,0.03601,0.0188046,-0.0150764,0.035738,0.0025596,-0.0217696,0.006099,0.0098048,-0.0013176,-0.0047264,0.0188088,-0.001797,0.0071472,0.0008872,-0.0056874,-0.0037602

[Codaman]

After Khvalynsk the sample closest to Steppe_HG is NEO555 from Vologda(~4300 BC) in northern Russia. This sample has elevated CHG for this this latitude(some other samples from the same culture have close to none) and carries the T2a1b1 maternal line which is closely linked with the steppe.

Target: Russia_Karavaikha_Mesolithic:NEO555
Distance: 6.4748% / 0.06474785
61.4 Russia_AfontovaGora3
28.6 Italy_North_Villabruna_HG
10.0 Georgia_Kotias.SG

The paternal line is listed as either R1b1a1(M73?) or just R1b.  Probably nothing too significant.

KAR001 from the same culture and era also has T2a1b1 but surprisingly picks even more CHG

Target: Russia_Vologda_Veretye_Mesolithic.SG:KAR001_noUDG.SG
Distance: 8.0050% / 0.08004979
56.2 Russia_AfontovaGora3
27.4 Italy_North_Villabruna_HG
16.4 Georgia_Kotias.SG

I couldn't really find much evidence of any kind of influence from the steppe to Karavaikha/Kargopol culture but presumably these went directly up the Volga. I wonder if this kind of ancestry made it to Finland too, I've read that there were movements from Russia to southwestern Finland during this period which differed from the local tradition.