The Origin of R1b-P312

[rmstevens2]

So, where did R1b-P312 first appear and among the people of what culture? It would be interesting to discuss this topic.

Currently, FTDNA Discover's Ancient Connections takes R1b-P312's MRCA back to about 2850 BC. The 95% confidence interval is 3516-2224 BC. Of course, the young end of that confidence interval is ridiculous, because we have numerous much more ancient c14-dated samples from subclades of P312, and they cannot be older than P312 itself.

The following is from pages 6-7 of one of my favorite scientific papers so far, the 2021 Papac et al paper, "Dynamic changes in genomic and social structures in third millennium BCE central Europe":

We observe a closer phylogenetic relationship between the Y chromosome lineages found in early CW and BB than in either late CW or Yamnaya and BB. R1b-L151 is the most common Y-lineage among early CW males (6 of 11, 55%) and one branch ancestral to R1b-P312 (Fig. 4A), the dominant Y-lineage in BB (5). Although it is not possible to determine whether the P312 mutation(s) occurred in one of the early CW R1b-L151 males from Bohemia, we note that most Bohemian BB males are further derived at R1b-L2/S116 (R1b1a1a2b1), in contrast to BB males from England, several of whom are derived at R1b-L21(R1b1a1a2c1), showing that English and Bohemian BB males cannot be descendants of one another, but rather diversified in parallel. A scenario of R1b-P312 originating somewhere between Bohemia and England, possibly in the vicinity of the Rhine (66, 67), followed by an expansion northwest and east is compatible with our current understanding of the phylogeography of ancient R1b-L151–derived lineages.

So, do you agree with Papac et al, or do you have other ideas?

We know from Papac et al that the very oldest Corded Ware samples thus far known were R1b-L151, and one of the two oldest of those was R1b-U106. Some of the Papac Bohemian Corded Ware samples lacked coverage for P312. It's possible one or more of them was actually R1b-P312. That's why Papac et al say, in the excerpt quoted above, "[I]t is not possible to determine whether the P312 mutation(s) occurred in one of the early CW R1b-L151 males from Bohemia".

Since R1b-P312 is apparently too old to have first arisen in Bell Beaker, it seems likely it arose in Corded Ware, or in Yamnaya or whatever Yamnaya-like steppe pastoralist group was ancestral to Corded Ware. Here's the basic chronology of Corded Ware as outlined by Polish archaeologist Piotr Włodarczak in the abstract entitled, “Eastern impulse in cultural and demographic changing during the ending southeastern Polish Eneolithic”, from the Abstract Book of the 2019 “Yamnaya Interactions” conference, University of Helsinki, 25-26 April 2019:

I – (ca. 3000-2900 BCE) Pre-Corded, related to the appearance of the oldest kurgan communities (horizon CWC-X)

II – (ca. 2800-2600 BCE) associated with the oldest Corded Ware horizon (horizon CWC-A)

III – (ca. 2600-2550 BCE) linked to the migration of Middle Dnieper groups and the appearance of features of Catacombnaya culture

So, what do you all think?

[rmstevens2]

I'm not trying to insult anyone's intelligence, but I think it might be helpful to post my R1b-L51 Descendant Tree, since it shows graphically where R1b-P312 is. A picture is worth a thousand words.

Note: PF6538 and Y215377 are not in FTDNA's tree. They are in YFull's tree. FTDNA's tree skips PF6538 and goes straight from P310 to L151 on that line. I'm not disputing either tree. I'm not sure of the reasons behind the differences in YFull's and FTDNA's trees. 

[Mitchell-Atkins]

Iain McDonald dates U106 to around 3050 BC, so I would be inclined to put P312 at a similar date. This would put L151 3100 BC or earlier.

And would make P312 pre Corded Ware. I would place P312 somewhere between Bohemia and the Middle Dnieper.

This is different from the rapid expansion phase e.g. ~2500 BC, which I would place near the Rhine.

EDIT: As P312 is a 2 SNP block, vs U106 which is 1 SNP, the TMRCA for P312 may be a little younger than McDonald's date for U106; e.g. 2950-3000 BC

[rmstevens2]

Regarding my R1b-L51 Descendant Tree a couple of posts back. I asked about PF6538 (the SNP from YFull's tree but not FTDNA's tree) in the Y-DNA R1b Project Facebook group. I got an answer from Vincent Vizachero, who is pretty knowledgeable. He said PF6538 is not a reliable SNP. Here's what he said about it:

It is not "reliable". It's a recurrent SNP in a region of the Y that is problematic. It doesn't even make the list of equivalent variants defining the R-L151 branch at FTDNA. And it only defines a node at YFull because of a single ancient DNA sample with VERY low coverage (2x vs 65x+ for most Big Y-700 samples).

As a consequence, I updated my R1b-L51 Descendant Tree as follows.

[rmstevens2]

Iain McDonald dates U106 to around 3050 BC, so I would be inclined to put P312 at a similar date.  This would put L151 3100 BC or earlier.

And would make P312 pre Corded Ware.  I would place P312 somewhere between Bohemia and the Middle Dnieper. 

This is different from the rapid expansion phase e.g. ~2500 BC, which I would place near the Rhine.

EDIT:  As P312 is a 2 SNP block, vs U106 which is 1 SNP, the TMRCA for P312 may be a little younger than McDonald's date for U106; e.g. 2950-3000 BC

I don't disagree. An interesting thing about what you wrote is that, if you're right, as you noted above, R1b-P312 should date to Włodarczak's stage I: "(ca. 3000-2900 BCE) Pre-Corded, related to the appearance of the oldest kurgan communities (horizon CWC-X)", i.e., the CWC-X Horizon. 

The only CWC-X Horizon archaeological sites I know about are Hubinek and Średnia in Małopolska in SE Poland. I've been fascinated by the CWC-X Horizon ever since I first read about it in Włodarczak's writings and in the 2020 Linderholm et al paper, "Corded Ware cultural complexity uncovered using genomic and isotopic analysis from south-eastern Poland".

Here's something you may recall from pages 2-3 of the Linderholm et al Supplementary Information:

At the same time, the possibility that steppe communities dispersed into Małopolska regions was indicated - starting from the turn of the fourth and third millennium BCE. This phenomenon, called the "CWC-X horizon" [10, 13, 14], would precede the rather static formalisation of the CWC barrow ritual, i.e. the A horizon. Until recently, this was only a theoretical idea. Recently, this has been confirmed with the discovery of graves with skeletons coloured with ochre in burials at site 2 in Hubinek, dated to 3000-2900 BCE [15]: supplement; see also [16]. The barrow burials of the older phase of the CWC - both from Małopolska and from other regions of Europe - have not been the subject of archaeogenetic research so far.

The following is from page 190 of Piotr Włodarczak's, “Chronometry of the Final Eneolithic Cemeteries at Święte, Jarosław District, from the Perspective of Cultural Relations among Lesser Poland, Podolia and the North-Western Black Sea Region” (in Baltic-Pontic Studies, vol. 23: 2018, 178-212 ISSN 1231-0344 DOI 10.2478/bps-2018-0006).

The central burial from a barrow in Hubinek also yielded a 14C date from the 3000-2900 BC range [Juras et al. 2018]. In this case, the burial rite recorded in the site suggests associating the grave with the older wave of migrations from the North Pontic steppe/forest steppe area.

Accepting the results for barrow 1 at Średnia as correct, one should assume a long duration of the earliest CWC phase in south-eastern Poland: from around 3000/2900 BC to ca. 2600 BC (as suggested by dendrochronology) or to ca. 2700 BC (assuming that the youngest among barrow graves can be assigned to a later phase, defined as “Central European horizon” for example).

I know I mentioned this way back when at AG, but if you look at a map of that region, you'll notice that the Dniester River flows southeast out of the Carpathians. It's headwaters aren't far from Małopolska. If steppe people from the North Pontic followed the Dniester Valley northwest toward that river's source, they would be led toward and very near Małopolska. Forest-steppe people headed west could also pick up the track of the Dniester Valley and wind up in Małopolska. Steppe and/or forest-steppe people could also just travel west north of the Dniester Valley and head straight into Małopolska.

[rmstevens2]

Anyone else care to comment?

If FTDNA Discover is right in its current TMRCA for P312 (2850 BC), then the birth of P312 would fall somewhere between Włodarczak's stages I and II, CWC-X and CWC-A, respectively. 

Any ideas?

Honestly, I'm not sure. As Mitchell-Atkins said, P312 could be older than FTDNA currently thinks it is. In that case, it probably originated in the CWC-X Horizon or maybe even before it, among whatever Yamnaya-like steppe or forest-steppe population was the source of CWC-X. If FTDNA is closer to right, then the oldest P312 is likely to be found in very early CWC-A, maybe in Germany, as Papac et al apparently think.

Probably I should have posted a poll as part of this thread. 

Anyway, to me this is interesting. I'd enjoy some discussion of it and seeing what everyone else thinks.

[AimSmall]

How did the Y-DNA Haplogroup R1b become European(Human Migration)?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lc3q1TK57wE

[alanarchae]

Anyone else care to comment?

If FTDNA Discover is right in its current TMRCA for P312 (2850 BC), then the birth of P312 would fall somewhere between Włodarczak's stages I and II, CWC-X and CWC-A, respectively. 

Any ideas?

Honestly, I'm not sure. As Mitchell-Atkins said, P312 could be older than FTDNA currently thinks it is. In that case, it probably originated in the CWC-X Horizon or maybe even before it, among whatever Yamnaya-like steppe or forest-steppe population was the source of CWC-X. If FTDNA is closer to right, then the oldest P312 is likely to be found in very early CWC-A, maybe in Germany, as Papac et al apparently think.

Probably I should have posted a poll as part of this thread. 

Anyway, to me this is interesting. I'd enjoy some discussion of it and seeing what everyone else thinks.

Obviously nobody can be sure but my feeling is early L151 and early (still small numbers) U106 and P312 were born in Bohemia c. 2900BC, travelled up the Elbe from the Czech area to the North Sea coast c. 2800BC during the formation phase of single grave culture with some L151* and U106 going into the geographical cul-de-sac of Denmark while very early P312 continued further west to the lower Rhine. The numbers of U106 and P312 back around are 2800BC would still be low and likely were still a couple of clostly related small clans. 

However, i’ve actually struggled to find archaeologists committing to exactly where in the very earliest part of the CW world the single grave culture is derived from and their route. South Poland seems to have the earliest CW dates but they can’t just have teleported to the north sea from there. My own hunch is the CW element that led to founding single ware likely used the Elbe and if so that’d point to the Czech area. Which would make sense from a yDNA point of view. This Heyd stuff from 2019 notes aceramic and other early CW graves in Bohemia from 2900BC with the possibility of even earlier ones https://www.academia.edu/65270535/On_the...in_Bohemia

I suppose, as it currently stands, it these early Bohemian CW graves would have to have in turn have arrived from Poland.

[rmstevens2]

I'm just speculating, but based on what we know so far, I think you're right. Old CWC-X wave P312 (or at least pre-P312 L151) came via Małopolska to Bohemia and then via the Elbe River valley northwest to northern Germany and thence to the Netherlands, Denmark, etc. 

No doubt U106 was part of that CWC-X wave but settled farther east and north, only moving south and west later.

I won't use this thread to speculate about the births and trajectories of the subclades of P312. 

Of course, new information, which I am desperately hoping for, could alter our perspectives and probably will.

[rmstevens2]

You know, I am grateful some folks cared enough about Bell Beaker to inspire the fantastic Olalde et al Beaker paper. (I think we ought to erect a statue of Iñigo Olalde at Amesbury Down in Wiltshire, England, or maybe outside FTDNA's HQ in Houston, Texas.)

Now I wish they would do something similar with Corded Ware as a whole, especially Single Grave Corded Ware. While they're at it, cover Corded Ware from the Volga to the Rhine, from Switzerland to Scandinavia, and from the CWC-X Horizon all the way through all its stages right to the end. 

Wouldn't that be something!

[rmstevens2]

Just eleven posts in this thread, and all but three of them are mine. I was hoping for more discussion. 

What do you all think?

Are Papac et al right, and P312 arose somewhere around the Rhine about 2850 BC (FTDNA Discover's estimate), or is P312 older and arose on the steppe or maybe in SE Poland?

Or do you have another idea? 

Maps are welcome.

[rmstevens2]

Did we discuss this topic to death years ago at AG? Is that the reason this thread is moving so slowly?

But surely we did not know as much then as we know now. There was a lot of really ridiculous crap current back then, like the goofy idea that P312 was born in Iberia.

[Ioas]

Did we discuss this topic to death years ago at AG? Is that the reason this thread is moving so slowly?

But surely we did not know as much then as we know now. There was a lot of really ridiculous crap current back then, like the goofy idea that P312 was born in Iberia.

I mean it's been kinda slow on this forum in general

[rmstevens2]

Did we discuss this topic to death years ago at AG? Is that the reason this thread is moving so slowly?

But surely we did not know as much then as we know now. There was a lot of really ridiculous crap current back then, like the goofy idea that P312 was born in Iberia.

I mean it's been kinda slow on this forum in general

You're right. I'm not sure why everyone hasn't come over from the other one and from AG yet.

[Ioas]

Did we discuss this topic to death years ago at AG? Is that the reason this thread is moving so slowly?

But surely we did not know as much then as we know now. There was a lot of really ridiculous crap current back then, like the goofy idea that P312 was born in Iberia.

I mean it's been kinda slow on this forum in general

You're right. I'm not sure why everyone hasn't come over from the other one and from AG yet.

 I think and this is a just hunch , that everyone is on the discord server for AG