Balto-Slavic drift evolution : PCA

[ph2ter]

Here I present a mega-PCA of all European G25 samples and the supposed evolution of the Balto-Slavic drift.

The epitome G25 samples that are crucial for the understanding of this evolution are:
- Corded_Ware_Baltic:_Spiginas2 dated to 1880 BC
- HUN_MBA_Vatya_o:RISE479 dated 1750 BC

Vatya_o is important because it is a sample with a very high level of BS drift, but composed only of HG and EEF components (almost without the Steppe ancestry).
Spiginas2 is the oldest BS-drift sample that belonged to or was similar to the population that was the ultimate ancestor of all Balto-Slavic populations.
The recent Kisapostag samples are similar to Vatya_o sample, but they belong to a different (dead) line of the BS-drift ppopulations.

Their ancestors were populations like:

WHG:
- Baltic_LTU_Narva: Donkalnis7 5460 BC
- UKR_Neolithic:NEO551 5336 BC

EEF:
- HUN_ALPc_Tiszadob_MN: I2375 5100 BC
- Yunatsite Bronze Age: (BGR_Yunatsite_EBA:YUN038 2840 BC (I2-L621), BGR_Yunatsite_EBA:YUN042 2780 BC)

Steppe:
- Corded_Ware_Baltic_early: I4629 2880 BC



Spiginas2
-------------- ANCESTRY BREAKDOWN: -------------
37.020% UKR_Neolithic__NEO551
24.972% Corded_Ware_Baltic_early__I4629
20.902% BGR_Yunatsite_EBA__YUN042
17.106% Baltic_LTU_Narva__Donkalnis7
------------------------------------------------
Fit error: 0.04233752389088881

Spiginas2
-------------- ANCESTRY BREAKDOWN: -------------
35.283% UKR_Neolithic__NEO551
26.680% Corded_Ware_Baltic_early__I4629
26.359% HUN_MBA_Vatya_o__RISE479
6.240%  BGR_Yunatsite_EBA__YUN042
5.438%  Baltic_LTU_Narva__Donkalnis7
------------------------------------------------
Fit error: 0.038849408969490476

Vatya_o
-------------- ANCESTRY BREAKDOWN: -------------
50.839% Baltic_LTU_Narva__Donkalnis7
31.848% HUN_ALPc_Tiszadob_MN__I2375
17.313% BGR_Yunatsite_EBA__YUN042
------------------------------------------------
Fit error: 0.06223935309970827


NEO551
-------------- ANCESTRY BREAKDOWN: -------------
67.157% Baltic_LTU_Narva__Donkalnis7
28.565% Corded_Ware_Baltic_early__I4629
4.278%  BGR_Yunatsite_EBA__YUN038
------------------------------------------------
Fit error: 0.056807702814199675

From tha above outputs it follows that Spiginas2 formed as a mix of a Corded Ware population and, BS drift population and an additional amount of Ukrainian HG (NEO551 -like, which was in turn a mix of Baltic HG and Steppe).
This BS drift population was a mix of Balto-Ukrainian hunter-gatheres and a population of farmers that lived somwhere in the close proximity of the Carpathians (Hungary and Bulgaria).
Vatya_o sample looks as a representative of it.

On the PCA the above analysis at least looks convincing (the size of the bubbles are proportional to BS-drift):




Full resolution image

[leonardo]

The Y-DNA of HUN_MBA_Vatya_o:RISE479 is I2a2a1a2a. Do you see this as the likely patrilineal source for Vatya_o samples and those like it, i.e., non CW?

[ph2ter]

The Y-DNA of HUN_MBA_Vatya_o:RISE479 is I2a2a1a2a. Do you see this as the likely patrilineal source for Vatya_o samples and those like it, i.e., non CW?

Nothing unusual for non-CW populations. Yes, some I2a clades.

[Jaska]

Is the view of Davidski in 2021 still valid? Based on his results, this “Balto-Slavic drift” should actually be called “Baltic-WestUralic-EastSlavic drift”:

Latvian 10,0
Lithuanian 9,4
Estonian 8,4
Russian west 7,9
Belarussian 7,7
Polish 7,0
Mordovian 6,7
Russian north 6,6
Ukrainian 6,6
Komi 6,4
Vepsian 6,4
Croatian 5,4
Finnish 5,2
Karelian 5,2
Hungarian 4,3
Serbian 4,2
Romanian 4,1
Macedonian 3,9
German 3,7
Bulgarian 3,6
Saami 3,4
Swedish 3,1
https://eurogenes.blogspot.com/2021/06/b...drift.html

Many South Slavs generally have no more this drift than the Germanic-speaking populations. Calling it “Balto-Slavic” seems to ignore the real distribution, the top results being very north-eastern. So, was this drift born in the north (East Baltic Region), or did it become replaced in the south later?

[ph2ter]

Is the view of Davidski in 2021 still valid? Based on his results, this “Balto-Slavic drift” should actually be called “Baltic-WestUralic-EastSlavic drift”:

Latvian 10,0
Lithuanian 9,4
Estonian 8,4
Russian west 7,9
Belarussian 7,7
Polish 7,0
Mordovian 6,7
Russian north 6,6
Ukrainian 6,6
Komi 6,4
Vepsian 6,4
Croatian 5,4
Finnish 5,2
Karelian 5,2
Hungarian 4,3
Serbian 4,2
Romanian 4,1
Macedonian 3,9
German 3,7
Bulgarian 3,6
Saami 3,4
Swedish 3,1
https://eurogenes.blogspot.com/2021/06/b...drift.html

Many South Slavs generally have no more this drift than the Germanic-speaking populations. Calling it “Balto-Slavic” seems to ignore the real distribution, the top results being very north-eastern. So, was this drift born in the north (East Baltic Region), or did it become replaced in the south later?

Balto-Slavic drift is not Uralic. It has nothing to do with Uralic or Siberian. Uralic people acquired it while mixing with Balto-Slavic populations when they migrated to the western parts of northeastern Europe. And the Slavs don't have Uralic component and at the same time have Balto-Slavic drift.
Of Germanic people only East Germans and southeastern Austrians have it in relatively higher proportions and this is because they mixed with the Slavs in Medieval age.
South Slavs also have it. Those who don't are not Slavs. Even the Greeks have it because of mixing with the Slavs.

[Jaska]

Ph2ter:

“Balto-Slavic drift is not Uralic. It has nothing to do with Uralic or Siberian. Uralic people acquired it while mixing with Balto-Slavic populations when they migrated to the western parts of northeastern Europe. And the Slavs don't have Uralic component and at the same time have Balto-Slavic drift.”

I said West Uralic, not Uralic. Clearly there is a connection, as the drift seems stronger in the western Uralic populations (up to Permic) than in many Slavic populations. If the western Uralic speakers acquired it in an admixture event, this requires that there was a population with this drift in the region between Middle/Upper Volga and the Baltic Sea.

So, was this drift born within the Fatyanovo area? If so, was the population it was born in linguistically Balto-Slavic? This would agree with the linguistic results.

Ph2ter:

“Of Germanic people only East Germans and southeastern Austrians have it in relatively higher proportions and this is because they mixed with the Slavs in Medieval age. South Slavs also have it. Those who don't are not Slavs. Even the Greeks have it because of mixing with the Slavs.”

But why the South Slavs have it less than the western Uralic populations? Was it born in the north and only weakly reached to the south? Or has it diminished in the South Slavs due to strong ancestry replacement?

[ph2ter]

Ph2ter:

“Balto-Slavic drift is not Uralic. It has nothing to do with Uralic or Siberian. Uralic people acquired it while mixing with Balto-Slavic populations when they migrated to the western parts of northeastern Europe. And the Slavs don't have Uralic component and at the same time have Balto-Slavic drift.”

I said West Uralic, not Uralic. Clearly there is a connection, as the drift seems stronger in the western Uralic populations (up to Permic) than in many Slavic populations. If the western Uralic speakers acquired it in an admixture event, this requires that there was a population with this drift in the region between Middle/Upper Volga and the Baltic Sea.

So, was this drift born within the Fatyanovo area? If so, was the population it was born in linguistically Balto-Slavic? This would agree with the linguistic results.

Between Baltic and Volga was Balto-Slavic population speaking Balto-Slavic, but this admixture happened after Fatyanovo disappeared from the area. Fatyanovo didn't have Balto-Slavic drift.

Ph2ter:

“Of Germanic people only East Germans and southeastern Austrians have it in relatively higher proportions and this is because they mixed with the Slavs in Medieval age. South Slavs also have it. Those who don't are not Slavs. Even the Greeks have it because of mixing with the Slavs.”

But why the South Slavs have it less than the western Uralic populations? Was it born in the north and only weakly reached to the south? Or has it diminished in the South Slavs due to strong ancestry replacement?

Because South Slavs are a mix of Balto-Slavic and Balkan pre-Slavic population in various proportions.
This admix they acquired in Medieval times. As you go south, the percentage of local admixture gets bigger and bigger until it prevails. Bulgarians, Macedonians and even Serbians have more of local component than Balto-Slavic. From Bosnia to the north Balto-Slavic starts to prevail, more or less.

[Jaska]

Ph2ter:

“Between Baltic and Volga was Balto-Slavic population speaking Balto-Slavic, but this admixture happened after Fatyanovo disappeared from the area. Fatyanovo didn't have Balto-Slavic drift.”

I agree. The Uralic western expansion only occurred during the 2nd millennium BCE.

Ph2ter:

“Because South Slavs are a mix of Balto-Slavic and Balkan pre-Slavic population in various proportions. This admix they acquired in Medieval times. As you go south, the percentage of local admixture gets bigger and bigger until it prevails. Bulgarians, Macedonians and even Serbians have more of local component than Balto-Slavic. From Bosnia to the north Balto-Slavic starts to prevail, more or less.”

Thank you, this sounds plausible.

[ph2ter]

This time I tried to reconstruct Balto-Slavic drift population with the assumption that such population was some Neolithic combination of HG and EEF, similar to Vatya_o, but to comply also Spiginas2 type of populations.

What I came up with is a population which on PCA falls very close to RomaniaC_oHG_GB sample:



Here is my new basic calculator with such BSD component (Balto-Slavic-Drift component which is also some kind of WHG-EEF-EHG combination):

Code:

BSD,0.139782,0.1522635,0.124916,0.0901845,0.1006165,0.0314615,0.0163085,0.0316,0.0371455,-0.004572,0.0012435,-0.0218345,0.039901,0.0662735,-0.0386175,-0.0082235,0.002497,0.0084965,0.00349,0.005984,0.009297,-0.003105,-0.0082725,-0.0721915,0.005406
EEF,0.116187154,0.182560923,0.003249077,-0.099981231,0.050991615,-0.048119308,-0.003850385,-0.007774846,0.040007923,0.082146538,0.008793923,0.011436077,-0.023797077,6.35385E-05,-0.044860692,-0.010321692,0.024121077,-0.000838154,0.011564154,-0.009398769,-0.015597385,0.006078,-0.004531692,-0.004096846,-0.005775538
WHG,0.130612,0.1112005,0.192897,0.20001875,0.14579625,0.056824,0.01562825,0.03432525,0.081912,-0.00350825,-0.01221975,-0.0175345,0.0237115,-0.00158275,0.047638,0.0614885,0.001532,0.0066195,-0.006128,0.054776,0.0923685,0.010696,-0.0403635,-0.1486655,0.01676475
EHG,0.122929,0.032496667,0.129980667,0.209843333,-0.010668667,0.056800333,-0.019036,-0.023921667,-0.002318,-0.086683333,0.017646,-0.018783333,0.033399,-0.038855667,0.018729,0.029258333,-0.014299,0.003040667,-0.003854667,0.012214,-0.007029333,0.015951,0.010558,-0.020886667,-0.009101
CHG,0.084229,0.1045995,-0.0914515,-0.003876,-0.089863,0.019662,0.0210335,-0.0036925,-0.129975,-0.076995,-0.0051965,0.02248,-0.049058,0.002133,0.029044,-0.0241975,0.029141,-0.0064615,-0.0189175,0.037768,0.0343145,-0.0069245,0.003266,-0.020846,-0.0006585
IRAN,0.045339667,0.065332333,-0.1523565,0.008021167,-0.1233565,0.026913,0.0137875,0.000846167,-0.081639,-0.056797,-0.003545333,-0.0004995,0.0043855,-0.008876833,0.0327765,0.054472333,-0.005346,0.005764333,0.013721833,-0.033578667,0.006883667,-0.029202667,-0.008771333,-0.0370135,0.0206965
SIBERIA-S,0.0665865,-0.221893,0.090886,0.088179,-0.0947865,-0.004602,-0.0300815,-0.031268,-0.0165665,-0.040274,0.0039785,-0.015586,0.0173185,-0.0526405,0.0051575,0.0027845,-0.004498,-0.007791,-0.001634,0.006816,-0.0295105,0.0115,0.01177,0.008977,-0.0222735
SIBERIA-W,0.0839445,-0.136081,0.0832495,0.15108425,-0.090863,0.02767975,-0.048882,-0.047998,-0.02684375,-0.06496725,0.0302855,-0.00588225,0.0239715,-0.0568725,0.01543825,0.0115355,-0.0144725,0.00272375,0.00399075,0.006128,-0.0354685,0.00995425,0.01996625,0.004097,-0.00805325
AMUR,0.019729333,-0.450895,0.079824,-0.055986667,-0.050060667,-0.045366333,0.013709333,0.010461,0.007294667,0.015004,-0.047092333,0.001698333,0.002329,0.017386667,-0.000724,-0.005303667,-0.005041667,0.000718,0.008966333,0.019967667,-0.00104,-0.026338333,-0.021280667,-0.003253333,-0.019958333
LEVANT,0.0685785,0.17289375,-0.027341,-0.14333225,0.028082,-0.064633,-0.01721475,-0.01407625,0.08094025,0.03603725,0.012504,-0.01618575,0.0353815,0.000688,-0.01347025,0.002917,0.00440025,-0.00456075,-0.006976,0.01572625,-0.00414875,0.005317,-0.002311,-0.00478975,-0.001946
MOROCCO,-0.189857,0.0812424,-0.0233816,-0.085918,0.026897,-0.0562244,-0.0688578,0.0189222,0.1556838,0.0023324,0.0228318,-0.0328806,0.0757278,-0.0494342,0.0694074,-0.035799,0.007719,-0.0649408,-0.1416618,0.0393438,-0.037908,-0.1254826,0.0707936,-0.0144358,0.0191596
CHINA,0.01935,-0.442263,0.0126335,-0.0560405,0.043854,0.0105975,0.003995,-0.000692,0.000102,0.0071075,-0.092724,-0.0129635,0.012859,-0.005849,-0.0065825,0.0005965,0.0022815,-0.00152,-0.002577,-0.005878,0.012041,0.01558,0.0156525,-0.000181,0.006227
INDOCHINA,-0.0034145,-0.334617,-0.0708985,-0.0040375,0.1024805,0.0292835,-0.00893,0.000577,0.015237,-0.006652,0.043601,0.007568,-0.0066895,-0.011216,-0.0050895,0.004243,0.005802,0.0020905,-0.0079815,0.0005,0.0043675,0.0072335,-0.002773,-0.0092785,0.0054485
ASIAN-PACIFIC,0.009675,-0.4087505,-0.0511,-0.0363375,0.1120205,0.040997,-0.00329,-0.00773,-0.009408,-0.0088385,0.0369435,0.002623,-0.0068385,0.0028905,0.007736,0.0082205,0.0024775,0.004434,0.0016345,-0.0116305,0.003743,-0.013911,0.0036975,-0.0134355,-0.0332905
INDIA,0.034147,-0.081242,-0.179887,0.122741,-0.096941,0.068886,0.00094,0.006923,0.035383,0.020228,-0.005034,0.004946,-0.006838,0.007019,0.002172,0.004375,0.007041,0.007348,-0.001383,0.00025,0.004367,-0.008779,-0.000863,-0.001566,-0.007065
SOUTHEAST-ASIA,-0.0381305,-0.216308,-0.1384035,0.1313,0.056626,-0.089942,-0.004935,0.004961,0.037837,0.016219,0.0107175,0.000075,-0.001561,0.0012385,-0.000407,-0.002188,0.0021515,0.0001265,-0.004462,0.0194465,0.0074245,0.0075425,-0.007703,0.0013255,-0.002455
WEST-AFRICA,-0.6038315,0.0573775,0.0139535,0.0272935,-0.00277,0.0027885,0.1236155,-0.0956495,0.0122715,-0.005285,-0.001299,-0.0219555,-0.021184,-0.0037845,0.0023075,0.0005965,0.011278,0.0184965,-0.003331,-0.001876,-0.0028075,0.000618,-0.000801,-0.00241,-0.0034725
EAST-AFRICA,-0.548058,0.051792,0.011125,0.0172805,0.001077,-0.001952,0.143709,-0.1073035,0.0579825,-0.037085,-0.003654,-0.0200075,-0.023563,-0.003303,0.0158795,-0.0101435,0.028489,0.1040115,-0.0267735,-0.0056275,-0.012166,0.0033385,0.001787,-0.004579,-0.0028735
SOUTH-AMERICA,0.050113583,-0.311090528,0.120835611,0.096469333,-0.111858417,-0.019909778,-0.288521306,-0.344466306,-0.010714917,-0.014796444,0.000320361,-0.002056472,-0.001238944,0.02309375,-0.007886694,0.004990528,0.005255028,-0.000355306,0.005474806,0.00577025,-0.001382944,0.004994139,0.000034361,-0.000796556,-0.001284111
CENTRAL-AMERICA,0.04467525,-0.317353,0.1119105,0.09197425,-0.11640625,-0.0169425,-0.2842455,-0.3302745,-0.00869225,-0.014761,-0.00024375,-0.0058075,0,0.02373975,-0.00257875,0.00477325,0.0079535,0.00072825,0.00339375,0.0005315,-0.0020275,0.012087,-0.00221875,-0.000512,-0.00302375
NORTH-AMERICA,0.047426333,-0.307367,0.115273333,0.090655333,-0.104327,-0.015431667,-0.254438333,-0.302141,-0.011658,-0.020228333,0.000541667,-0.00005,0.000099,0.013991667,-0.009862333,0.008486,0.005519333,0.003251667,0.004315333,0.004627667,0.003494,-0.002473,-0.003861667,0.002972,-0.000678667
CANADA,0.052928,-0.3234465,0.1071025,0.080427,-0.1029425,-0.0170125,-0.195294,-0.2371055,-0.005011,-0.016219,-0.004547,0.0020235,0.000223,-0.005161,-0.0077365,-0.003845,0.0009775,0.003674,0.006222,0.0113805,0.0024955,-0.0061825,0.0067785,0.0063865,0.0055085
AUSTRALIA,-0.042115,-0.224432,-0.205154,0.215442,0.145566,-0.322398,-0.007285,0.014538,-0.000818,0.003098,-0.004872,-0.002248,0.004311,-0.001239,-0.008415,-0.000796,0.004694,-0.001774,-0.01169,-0.003377,0.003369,-0.006801,-0.000863,-0.001928,-0.00946
YAMNAYA,0.125837778,0.089253889,0.042907889,0.115455556,-0.027868444,0.044684556,0.004491111,-0.002948667,-0.054857889,-0.072995667,0.001858333,0.000349667,-0.001651778,-0.023609889,0.037262889,0.015734,1.11111E-07,-0.001478,-0.001704,0.012505889,-0.003119667,0.001374,0.011229222,0.018436222,-0.004523667

[JMcB]

Target  Distance    YAMNAYA     EEF    WHG   BSD
JMcB  0.04262246    41.6        40.4    14.6    3.4

[ph2ter]

ph2ter
-------------- ANCESTRY BREAKDOWN: -------------
41.527% YAMNAYA
30.055% BSD
27.288% EEF
1.025% CHINA
0.105% SOUTH-AMERICA
------------------------------------------------
Fit error: 0.026912967688958855

[mjaguk]

44.6 YAMNAYA
36.2 BSD
17.2 EEF
0.8 MOROCCO
0.6 EHG
0.4 WHG
0.2 CHINA

[vasil]

Distance: 2.4065% / 0.02406463
35.4 EEF
29.6 YAMNAYA
21.4 BSD
6.0 CHG
6.0 LEVANT
1.6 ASIAN-PACIFIC

[Parastais]

I have a feeling Bug - Dniester culture could have had something to do with origins of the drift.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bug–Dniester_culture
But it’s hard to find some good materials on later dynamics for these guys. Tripolyans took over their territory and according to Russian wiki they (part of them) moved to Dnieper - Donetsk and took part in creation of Sredny Stog (maybe that is why some Dereivka cases show ~BS admixture).
Also I read somewhere else Neman and Pripyat EBA cultures got some parallels in ceramics to variants of Bug - Dniester.

Anyway for now until better evidence comes I consider them main candidate for early source of this drift.

[member]

Target: member_scaled
Distance: 1.7952% / 0.01795175
46.8 EEF
30.4 YAMNAYA
14.2 BSD
4.6 LEVANT
3.2 IRAN
0.6 CHINA
0.2 CHG