(04-22-2024, 02:13 AM)Mabrams Wrote: I would estimate 300,000 Family Finder kits to update.
1.7 million database
subtract 55% females
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765,000 males
subtract 45% autosomal transfers
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420,000 men with FF kits
subtract 25% with Adv SNPs already
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315,000 FF men to be updated.
Some of those men are going to be V1s and not the current V2 GSA. Not sure what percentage that might be, nor how extensive are the V1 YSNPs.
I did not factor MyHeritage into the above.
% above reflect files I have access to, and info exchanges with a couple of other people. Other people may see different % but I think the overall conclusion will be similar.
Just to allow myself some leeway, I'll say 200 to 400,000 men to be updated.
If I add the MyHeritage upload and being a bit more generous, I think we can calculate with about 400.000 male testers which will eventully being tested and their results shown in the BigY tree.
Starting from that number, my main branch seems to have a frequency in the testing population of 0,14 (FTDNA) to 0,21 (23andMe) in the data base. If I calculate with 0,2 % this should result in about 800 new branch members at the end of the day. So far less than a quarter appeared in the BigY tree, which means they have less than 1/4 of the data base assigned yet.
In the 23andMe data base there should be by comparison more than 14.000 and in Ancestry more than 26.000. These are all rather conservative and low numbers, because 23andMe doesn't recognise my branch with older chips and the FTDNA percentage I got by using BigY numbers. But there are way more non-Europeans doing BigY like from Arab states than there are European Family Finder testers in my opinion, which means the real number should be closer to the 23andMe percentage and about or above 0,2 %.
In any case, a huge number of distant male relatives from the Late Bronze Age has already DNA tested (about 40.000 - 80.000 would be my guess). yet the BigY tested fraction is much smaller of course and just in the hundreds. Lots of potential, that's my takeaway. If Ancestry DNA would add a similar resolution as FTDNA/23andMe, which they probably can't, because their chip covers less SNP's, that would really help to find male relatives.
Like I got lots and lots of matches on Ancestry and MyHeritage in particular which could be matches on the paternal line, some being really old, like potentially Medieval era common ancestors. Having the assignment there would probably help a bit more because with distant genealogical matches its always a numbers game, since you just match a very tiny fraction of your genealogical relatives that distant from yourself (early modern/medieval). Probably we have no autosomal matching left at all with any male descendant, that's possible too unfortunately, after centuries have gone by.