(05-18-2024, 08:57 AM)Pylsteen Wrote: I think the Roman communities along the Rhine might be responsible for a lot of (Eastern) Mediterranean lineages in our lands; if I remember correctly, there will be more results from the (Late) Roman/Merovingian period from the NRW area soon.

Just as think exercise.

I have asked Chat GPT:

Which change in numbers is bigger? On the one hand the change in numbers when a solitary Y-DNA branch flows in 1000 AD into a population that this Y-DNA branch still survives today in this population? On the other hand the change that someone is hit by a thunder and wins the postcode lottery during a lifetime in the Netherlands?

To determine which change in numbers is bigger between the survival of a solitary Y-DNA branch from 1000 AD to today and the probability of being hit by thunder and winning the postcode lottery during a lifetime in the Netherlands, we need to examine the probabilities involved in both scenarios.

### Scenario 1: Y-DNA Branch Survival from 1000 AD

1. **Introduction and Survival of Y-DNA Branch**:

- A solitary Y-DNA branch enters a population in 1000 AD.

- Assuming the population size was around 1,000,000 people in 1000 AD.

2. **Modern Population**:

- Considering the modern Netherlands with approximately 17 million people.

3. **Generations**:

- From 1000 AD to 2024 AD is approximately 1024 years.

- Assuming 25 years per generation, this gives us about 41 generations.

4. **Calculating Survival**:

- Assuming a conservative probability of 0.5 for each generation (each man has a 50% chance of having at least one son who survives), the probability of survival over 41 generations is \(0.5^{41} \approx 4.55 \times 10^{-13}\).

- Real-world survival rates might be higher due to multiple descendants and interconnected populations.

### Scenario 2: Hit by Thunder and Winning Postcode Lottery

1. **Probability of Being Hit by Thunder**:

- The annual chance of being struck by lightning in the Netherlands is roughly 1 in 1,000,000.

- Over an average 80-year lifetime, this is about \(80 \times 1/1,000,000 = 1/12,500\).

2. **Probability of Winning the Postcode Lottery**:

- The chance of winning the postcode lottery is around 1 in 10,000,000 for major prizes.

3. **Combined Probability**:

- The combined probability of both events happening in a lifetime is the product of the two probabilities: \( \frac{1}{12,500} \times \frac{1}{10,000,000} = 8 \times 10^{-12} \).

### Comparison:

- **Survival of Y-DNA**:

- The probability of a Y-DNA line surviving over 41 generations is approximately \(4.55 \times 10^{-13}\).

- **Thunder and Lottery**:

- The probability of being struck by lightning and winning the postcode lottery is \(8 \times 10^{-12}\).

**Conclusion**:

The change in numbers is bigger in the scenario of someone being hit by thunder and winning the postcode lottery during a lifetime in the Netherlands. The probability of this combined event, while very small, is still larger than the probability of a solitary Y-DNA branch surviving from 1000 AD to the present day. The Y-DNA survival probability is \(4.55 \times 10^{-13}\), which is smaller than the \(8 \times 10^{-12}\) probability of the combined thunder and lottery event.